Dem 50
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Ties 1
GOP 49
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Valadao Wins

One of the last remaining unresolved House races has been called by the AP. In California's 22nd district, Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) has defeated state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D). With 98% of the vote in, Valadao is up 51.7% to 48.3%. It's not so easy to make up a 3.4% gap with only 2% of the vote left to count. So sorry, Salas.

The big storyline here is that Valadao is one of the 10 Republicans in the House who voted in favor of Donald Trump's impeachment, and yet he's lived to tell the tale. Only one other Republican can say the same; Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA) also voted to impeach Trump and yet kept his job. Of the eight impeachment voters who will soon be collecting unemployment, four lost their primaries and four decided not to run for reelection.

This is yet another indication of where Trump has actual political strength: in Republican primaries. In red districts, or red states, he can often help a MAGA candidate achieve victory over a non-MAGA candidate. But in purple districts and states, and in general elections, his power is largely broken. He's like the Headless Horseman of politics; a Republican just has to get across the covered bridge and they're OK. It's just a coincidence, incidentally, that the pumpkin that the Headless Horseman uses in place of a head is big and orange.

The call in CA-22 means that, in the eyes of most outlets, there are just four undecided races left. Here they are:

  1. CA-03: Kevin Kiley (R) leads Kermit Jones (D), 52.2% to 47.8% with 71% reporting
  2. CA-13: John Duarte (R) leads Adam Gray (D) 50.34% to 49.66% with 95%+ reporting
  3. CO-03: Lauren Boebert (R) leads Adam Frisch (D) 50.08% to 49.92% with 95%+ reporting
  4. AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leads Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich (R), 48.7% to 25.8% to 23.4% with 95%+ reporting

Nobody seriously doubts that Peltola will be reelected, and as we pointed out over the weekend, Frisch has already conceded in CO-03. Jones and Gray are both in bad shape. So, you're likely looking at three Republican seats here and one Democratic seat. If so, that leaves you with 222 for the red team and 213 for the blue team. (Z)

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