We have our first poll of the Georgia runoff and, as you can see, it suggests that Herschel Walker (R) is treading water while Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is picking up pretty much all the non-Walker vote from Election Day. And maybe even some of the Walker vote; the results from Nov. 8 were 49.5% for the Senator, 48.4% for Walker and 2.1% for Libertarian Chase Oliver.
The crosstabs here are pretty interesting. Walker is leading by 9 points among voters 50+, but Warnock is up 24 points among voters 18-49. There are more people in the latter group, but there are likely more people who will actually vote in the former group. That said, Warnock is absolutely dominating with Black voters; he's got an 83-point lead among them. And so, if Black voters show up in sizable numbers (something that Saturday voting will make easier; see above), then Walker is in deep trouble.
One other thing: Oliver was running as the "armed and gay" candidate, and made much of the fact that he was the first openly LGBTQ+ Senate candidate in Georgia history. If any of his voters were motivated by a desire to promote LGBTQ+ equality, as opposed to a desire to promote Libertarianism, then you have to figure those folks are now Warnock voters. After all, Walker has been openly anti-LGBTQ+ during his run, particularly the "T" portion of that. And in case anyone forgot how he feels, he has been "inspired" by the shooting in Colorado Springs to unleash an anti-trans ad and several anti-trans speeches. (Z)
|State||Democrat||D %||Republican||R %||Start||End||Pollster|
|Georgia||Raphael Warnock*||51%||Herschel Walker||47%||Nov 11||Nov 17||Fabrizio + Impact|