Tipping-Point State

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Biden, start at the top, so if he wins D.C. and nothing else, he gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If he wins only Wyoming, he gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Biden have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Biden's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Biden Trump Lead Biden EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
92%
5%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
66%
31%
35%
 6
 535
Massachusetts
11
65%
33%
32%
 17
 532
Maryland
10
65%
33%
32%
 27
 521
Hawaii
4
65%
34%
31%
 31
 511
California
55
64%
34%
30%
 86
 507
New York
29
61%
38%
23%
 115
 452
Rhode Island
4
60%
39%
21%
 119
 423
Connecticut
7
59%
39%
20%
 126
 419
Washington
12
58%
39%
19%
 138
 412
Delaware
3
59%
40%
19%
 141
 400
Oregon
7
57%
40%
17%
 148
 397
New Jersey
14
57%
41%
16%
 162
 390
Illinois
20
57%
41%
16%
 182
 376
Colorado
9
52%
40%
12%
 191
 356
Virginia
13
54%
44%
10%
 204
 347
New Mexico
5
54%
44%
10%
 209
 334
Maine
4
53%
44%
9%
 213
 329
Minnesota
10
53%
45%
8%
 223
 325
New Hampshire
4
53%
46%
7%
 227
 315
Michigan
16
51%
48%
3%
 243
 311
Nevada
6
50%
48%
2%
 249
 295
Wisconsin
10
50%
49%
1%
 259
 289
Pennsylvania
20
50%
49%
1%
     279
     279
Georgia
16
50%
49%
1%
 295
 259
Arizona
11
50%
49%
1%
 306
 243
North Carolina
15
49%
50%
1%
 321
 232
Florida
29
48%
51%
3%
 350
 217
Texas
38
46%
52%
6%
 388
 188
Ohio
18
45%
53%
8%
 406
 150
Iowa
6
45%
53%
8%
 412
 132
Alaska
3
43%
54%
11%
 415
 126
South Carolina
9
43%
55%
12%
 424
 123
Missouri
10
41%
57%
16%
 434
 114
Kansas
6
41%
57%
16%
 440
 104
Indiana
11
41%
57%
16%
 451
 98
Montana
3
40%
57%
17%
 454
 87
Mississippi
6
40%
59%
19%
 460
 84
Louisiana
8
40%
59%
19%
 468
 78
Utah
6
38%
58%
20%
 474
 70
Nebraska
5
39%
59%
20%
 479
 64
Tennessee
11
37%
61%
24%
 490
 59
Alabama
9
37%
62%
25%
 499
 48
South Dakota
3
36%
62%
26%
 502
 39
Kentucky
8
36%
62%
26%
 510
 36
Arkansas
6
35%
63%
28%
 516
 28
Idaho
4
33%
64%
31%
 520
 22
Oklahoma
7
32%
65%
33%
 527
 18
North Dakota
3
32%
65%
33%
 530
 11
West Virginia
5
30%
69%
39%
 535
 8
Wyoming
3
27%
70%
43%
 538
 3