State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Will Boyd 36% Katie Britt 64% +28% 2016 Election
Alaska Pat Chesbro 11% Lisa Murkowski* 44% +33% 2016 Election
Arizona Mark Kelly* 49% Blake Masters 43% +6% Sep 26
Arkansas Natalie James 31% John Boozman* 44% +13% Sep 12
California Alex Padilla* 63% Mark Meuser 37% +26% 2016 Election
Colorado Michael Bennet* 46% Joe O`Dea 36% +10% Sep 26
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal* 55% Leora Levy 40% +15% Sep 21
Florida Val Demings 44% Marco Rubio* 47% +3% Sep 20
Georgia Raphael Warnock* 47% Herschel Walker 43% +4% Sep 26
Hawaii Brian Schatz* 74% Bob McDermott 22% +52% 2016 Election
Idaho David Roth 28% Mike Crapo* 66% +38% 2016 Election
Illinois Tammy Duckworth* 50% Kathy Salvi 31% +19% Sep 23
Indiana Thomas McDermott 42% Todd Young* 52% +10% 2016 Election
Iowa Michael Franken 39% Chuck Grassley* 47% +8% Jul 13
Kansas Mark Holland 33% Jerry Moran* 45% +12% Sep 18
Kentucky Charles Booker 39% Rand Paul* 55% +16% Jan 22
Louisiana Candidate unknown 18% John Kennedy* 25% +7% 2016 Election
Maryland Chris Van Hollen* 56% Chris Chaffee 33% +23% Sep 12
Missouri Trudy Valentine 38% Eric Schmitt 49% +11% Sep 27
Nevada _NV!D 43% Adam Laxalt 46% +3% Sep 29
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan* 50% Don Bolduc 41% +9% Sep 26
New York Chuck Schumer* 55% Joe Pinion 36% +19% Sep 25
North Carolina Cheri Beasley 44% Ted Budd 45% +1% Sep 23
North Dakota Katrina Christiansen 17% John Hoeven* 79% +62% 2016 Election
Ohio Tim Ryan 47% J.D. Vance 45% +2% Sep 22
Oklahoma Madison Horn 35% James Lankford* 52% +17% Sep 07
Oklahoma-special Kendra Horn 40% Markwayne Mullin 52% +12% Sep 07
Oregon Ron Wyden* 57% Jo-Rae Perkins 34% +23% 2016 Election
Pennsylvania John Fetterman 47% Mehmet Oz 43% +4% Sep 26
South Carolina Krystle Matthews 37% Tim Scott* 61% +24% 2016 Election
South Dakota Brian Bengs 28% John Thune* 72% +44% 2016 Election
Utah Evan McMullin (I) 34% Mike Lee* 37% +3% Sep 21
Vermont Peter Welch 61% Gerald Malloy 33% +28% 2016 Election
Washington Patty Murray* 52% Tiffany Smiley 40% +12% Sep 28
Wisconsin Mandela Barnes 46% Ron Johnson* 49% +3% Sep 27