Jan.17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Looking Backward: How Did the Readers Do?, Part I: Donald Trump

We've put the pundits' predictions for 2022, and also our predictions for 2022, under the microscope. Now it's time to turn to the readers' predictions. Recall that the boldness scores were set last year, and that a prediction has to have an accuracy of at least 3/5 to earn the boldness bonus.

• J.F. in Fort Worth, TX: Trump will absolutely, positively run for president again in 2024. He will make the official announcement very soon after the Republicans sweep the midterms.
  
  Boldness: 2.5/5. Will Trump go off prematurely like this (though premature is probably a way of life for him)? Will the Republicans will sweep the midterms? Both seem very plausible.
  
  Final Score: 2.5 (Accuracy: 2.5, Boldness: 0). Correct about the Trump announcement, but not about the GOP midterm sweep.
  
  
• J.D. in Olathe, KS: Trump's status as kingmaker will be severely set back, as fewer than half of his endorsed candidates will win in competitive primaries. There will be losses in Alabama, North Carolina and Alaska, among others. However he will rejoice in Liz Cheney's defeat in Wyoming.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. A loss in Alabama? Roy Moore isn't running again, is he?
  
  Final Score: 2.5 (A: 2.5, B: 0). Broadly correct, in that many Trump endorsees lost, and his status as kingmaker was set back. But in specifics, wrong about Alabama, North Carolina and "fewer than half of his endorsed candidates." Admittedly, he got his batting average up by choosing sure winners, but a batting average above .500 is still a batting average above .500.
  
  
• J.A. in Puerto Armuelles, Panama: Once New York AG Tish James and/or Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg files charges against the Trump group of companies, they will implode (financially, the buildings themselves will probably be OK... probably) in very short order; long before the cases come to court. Unfortunately for Trump and his various henchmen, you can't file bankruptcy on criminal charges.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. Plausible, but the wheels of justice move very slowly, and you've got a lot of movement in a very short time here.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). Didn't happen.
  
  
• D.S. in Portland, OR: Donald Trump will be charged with a crime, but will successfully stall and run out the clock for 2022 without ever going to trial.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. The bold part is predicting that he'll be charged this year. If he is, then it will be in summer or fall, and it is a certainty he'll be able to delay until 2023
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). No charges, as yet.
  
  
• D.R. in Old Harbor, AK: Trump will face several serious court charges by July 1: election tampering in Georgia, and embezzlement/tax fraud in New York. The 1/6 Committee will present recommendations to the Attorney General by July 1.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. Eventually? Very likely. By the end of this year? That's very fast.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). Ibid, with the additional note that the 1/6 Committee took every last minute available to it.
  
  
• S.S. in West Hollywood, CA: The 1/6 Committee report will be explosive, proving the existence of a plan between Trump and members of Congress to deny President Biden his victory. Nothing will change, and it won't help Democrats in November.
  
  Boldness: 2/5. This all seems more likely than not.
  
  Final Score: 5.5 (A: 3.5, B: 2). The first part was correct. The second part was wrong, in that the Democrats did not do poorly in November, but correct, we would say, in that the Democrats' performance was more about abortion than 1/6.
  
  
• T.V. in Moorpark, CA: In an effort to avoid his legal and financial problems, Donald Trump will make an attempt to flee the country.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. By all indications, he has convinced himself he's a martyr, and is going to fight until the end rather than flee. Plus, it would not be easy to escape the U.S. Secret Service
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). He's still here.
  
  
• G.W. in Oxnard, CA: The Trump media company will not launch any actual media in 2022 unless you count press releases as "media."
  
  Boldness: 3/5. Maybe, but don't forget there's money in it for Trump, and he'll move heaven and earth when that is the case
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). They did indeed launch Truth Social, albeit clumsily.
  
  
• L.T. in Vienna, Austria: Trump's Truth Social will go live at the end of Q1 and close down by year's end.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. This is pretty bold, we think, because even if Truth Social basically fails, it's likely Team Trump will keep a skeleton version running in order to save face
  
  Final Score: 2.5 (A: 2.5, B: 0). First part correct, second part not so much.
  
  
• D.C. in Delray Beach, FL: Trump will have a major medical event that will dramatically curtail his ability to act as puppetmaster.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. Maybe, though he's made it this far without anything more major than "bone spurs."
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). If this happened, Trump managed to keep it a secret.
  
  
• A.M in Olympia, WA: The 45th President of the United States will become the late president after choking on two Big Macs.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. Speaking of making it this far, Trump has eaten thousands of Big Macs without choking. He seems to have the hang of it.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). He's still among us.
  
  
• M.C.A. in San Francisco, CA: You will have fewer than five Trump-free news days (not counting weekends) for all of 2022. This will be the case even if he passes away.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. He does show up a lot, particularly when including adjectives like "Trumpy" or "Trumpist." But 4/365 is just 1%. We think that, just by chance, there will be that many Trump-free days.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). As we suspected, it's rare, but it's not that rare. Heck, there were four Trump-free days in October alone: Oct. 14, Oct. 16, Oct. 25, and Oct. 29.

Not the best showing in round one; we count 13 points out of a possible 120, for a batting average of just .108. Oh, well, there's still time to recover. And, if not, that's still good enough to start for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

We will start reader predictions for 2023 tomorrow, so if you have any, now it the time to send them in. (Z)