Dec.04

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Will Mike Johnson Be Able to Herd the House Cats?

As we note, the current score on the House is 214 D, 220 R, with CA-13 still hanging in the balance, but likely to go Democratic, for a final tally of 215 D, 220 R. Subtract the three exiting GOP members, and it's 215 D, 217 R. With a 1-vote margin of error, at least for the first 100 days or so, it means that Mike Johnson will get to deal with 217 Joe Manchins.

Most House Republicans will follow Johnson's orders, but most doesn't do the job. All does the job. There are at least five groups and things Johnson will have to worry about, and some of them will be issues even beyond the three special elections that will return his majority to 220-215. Here is a brief rundown of the lay of the land:

• The Freedom Caucus: These folks are extremely right wing and also want deep cuts in government spending, especially in areas they don't like. For the first 100 days any one of them could torpedo any of Donald Trump's plans. Even with a 220-215 House, it would take only three votes to kill budget and other bills. Three hard-line Republicans on the House Rules Committee, Reps. Thomas Massie (KY), Ralph Norman (SC) and Chip Roy (TX), have often killed bills they didn't like in committee in the past. Now they will have the power to kill bills from all committees by voting with the Democrats against them. They are not likely to give up this power without a fight, and Johnson can't threaten them with removal from that Committee (which would cause the FC to go bonkers and move to vacate the chair).
  
  
• The SALT Caucus: Republicans from high-tax states like California, New Jersey, and New York want to expand the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from the $10,000 set in the 2017 tax cut law. Trump revels in the limit because it selectively punishes well-off suburban voters, many of whom have become Democrats. The problem for Johnson is that it now takes only one member from a SALT-y district to throw sand in the gears. Threats of a primary from the right are essentially threats to hand the seat to the Democrats, which could lead to a Democratic majority in Jan. 2027. Neither Trump nor Johnson wants that, so these people will probably need to be placated. But raising the SALT cap will mean a bigger budget deficit, something the Freedom Caucus is wildly opposed to. Republican Reps. Young Kim (CA), Mike Lawler (NY), and Jeff Van Drew (NJ) are going to lead the SALT march.
  
  
• The Ambition Caucus: Quite a number of Republican representatives are planning to run for higher office in 2026. For example, Kevin Hern (OK) and Byron Donalds (FL) are likely to run for the governor's mansion in their respective states. Members don't have to resign to run, but once they have announced, they will be out on the campaign trail a lot and may miss many votes. With only 220 votes, if five Republicans miss the vote, then it goes down (of course, some Democrats may also seek higher office, balancing things out somewhat). It also matters where the missing representatives are from. Someone running for office in Virginia can pop back for a vote more easily than someone from Oklahoma.
  
  
• The Defense Hawk Caucus: Some House Republicans have not drunk the Kool-Aid and still oppose Vladimir Putin and Godless Communism. They do not want Putin to take over Ukraine and will insist on including funding for Ukraine in the budget (in part because they know the money is actually spent in the U.S. by giving orders to defense contractors to produce weapons for Ukraine). They could refuse to vote for a budget that does not include money for Ukraine. In particular, the incoming chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), is a noted defense hawk. He is a supporter of aid for Ukraine and there is no easy way around him.
  
  
• The Deficit Caucus: A number of conservative House members oppose growing the federal deficit. They want it to be smaller. They think just borrowing money is unsustainable. Of course, they keep voting for tax cuts for rich people, which just increases the deficit. But then they can argue spending has to be cut. Any bill that has the effect of increasing the deficit is going to get close scrutiny from them. A project to round up and deport millions of people, for example, will be very, very expensive, and this bunch of skinflints won't like the fiscal impact and might demand major cuts elsewhere in the budget to finance the deportations.
  
  
• The Actuarial Caucus: Three members of the 118th Congress died during the 2-year stretch. There will be 13 members of the new Congress older than 80. Luckily for Johnson, the majority of those are Democrats. Still, even a serious illness that keeps a member away for weeks could be a problem when the margins are so small.
  

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was one of the greatest cat herders in the past century. We may soon find out if Johnson's skills can match hers. (V)