Dec.04

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Is Trump the Next Erdogan?

Last week we had an item summarizing what Hungarian journalist Gábor Scheiring had to say about how Viktor Orbán became an authoritarian. It took a while, but eventually he eliminated the guardrails and had absolute power. The item ended with the journalist's view on how to prevent Donald Trump from following that path.

Today we have a summary of an article written by Turkish journalist Asli Aydintasbas about what Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did in Turkey, and lessons for the U.S. under Donald Trump.

• Don't Panic: Rome wasn't built in a day and neither is an autocracy. It takes time to convert a democratic state into an autocratic one. It took Erdoğan well over a decade to consolidate power, and Trump doesn't have a decade (either in office, or, well...). Also, the U.S. governmental system is highly decentralized, with states and governors having actual power that cannot be overridden, judges having lifetime tenure who cannot be fired, and a media world protected by the First Amendment with a century of precedents, along with courts that move slowly. Even though Republicans have the trifecta now, the margins are razor-thin and are likely to be thinner yet, or gone, in Jan. 2027.
  
  
• Don't Disengage: People in Hungary and Turkey disengaged after Orbán's and Erdoğan's victories. Bad idea. The answer is not to disconnect, but to organize and create more resistance. And more than anything to vote in the next election. There are two gubernatorial elections and multiple local elections in 2025. Get out the vote and make it clear that people are engaged and fighting for democracy.
  
  
• Don't Fear Infighting: After every electoral loss, the losing party spends a certain amount of time pointing fingers and assigning blame. Fine. Do it for a bit, but then get back to work. The authoritarians in Hungary and Turkey convinced the people that their opponents were elites against the people. Democrats have to shake that image and come up with a program that speaks to ordinary people. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected president four times. Maybe he knew something. Time to hit the Roosevelt biographies.
  
  
• Charismatic Leadership: Party platforms are one thing, but to be successful, Democrats need a charismatic leader, someone people like, respect, and want to follow. Joe Biden wasn't that person and probably Kamala Harris wasn't either. There are 180 million adults over 35 in the U.S. Half of them are Democrats. Surely in a pool of 90 million people, there is one charismatic leader to be found. It doesn't have to be a governor or senator. It could be a local politician or someone outside of politics. In fact, the further from D.C. the person is, the better.
  
  
• Skip the Protests and Identity Politics: In Turkey, the opposition held street demonstrations and promoted secularism (Turkey's version of identity politics). That spoke to the upper middle class, but not beyond it. Demonstrations repel many suburban voters and go nowhere. Education campaigns and voter registration drives don't repel anyone. Grassroots action needs to be coupled with a clear economic message that voters understand. Governors and mayors can try to carry out the message, and if it fails, make sure everyone understands who blocked it.
  
  
• Have Hope: Nothing lasts forever. After Barry Goldwater's crushing defeat in 1964 (he won Arizona and five states in the old Confederacy), things looked bleak for the Republicans. But in 1968, Richard Nixon arose from the dead and won. Trump is stocking his administration with incompetent zealots. They are sure to make mistakes. Democrats need to capitalize on each of them and harp on a message like "Republicans are corrupt" or "Republicans are sleazebags," "Republicans can't govern," depending on the mistake. No matter who made the mistake, Trump chose that person so Trump can be blamed for having terrible judgment. Keep harping on his inability to get good people to work for him.
  

In short, the world keeps changing, and nothing is forever, but instigating change takes hard work. (V)