Dem
47
GOP
53
John Thune is a man with a plan. He wants to get two bills through Congress within the first 30 days of Trump v2.0. The first will focus on the border, defense, and energy. It would try to bypass the filibuster by using the budget reconciliation process. But such bills have to be primarily about the budget. Appropriating $50 billion to deepen the Rio Grande and string razor wire from Texas to the Pacific Ocean would certainly pass. Changing the nation's immigration laws is not a budget item.
The second bill will cut taxes and other items. It might not be able to use the reconciliation process, depending on what is in it. Clearly Thune would prefer to use reconciliation, but this means avoiding items that are only tangentially related to the budget. The process of inspecting the bill to see if it is clean enough is formally called giving it a "Byrd bath," after the late senator Robert Byrd, who devised it. There are six criteria for rejecting a provision of a reconciliation bill, as follows:
If any provision fails the Byrd bath, it either has to be removed or it has to use the regular order, which means it can be filibustered.
But the reconciliation process does require a majority in both chambers of Congress. The Senate is probably not a problem since the Republican majority there will be 53-47. The real problem is the House, where the initial majority will probably be 217-215, depending on the timing of a couple of resignations (which might depend on how fast the Senate can confirm those nominees). For the Freedom Caucus, this is the moment to strike. If it wants a more draconian budget, this is when its power is at its peak. But if all its demands are put into the budget bill, it might have trouble passing the Senate. The speaker, whoever that may be, will be in for a rough time. Also, Thune, who is an experienced lawmaker, will be challenged to the max. (V)