Dec.06

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

News From the Backbench: Martin May Get the Keys to the DNC Kingdom

On February 1 of next year, it's expected that the Democrats will elect the party's next leader. When a Democrat is in the White House, such an election is pro forma, and serves merely to coronate the person chosen by the president. But otherwise, it's usually wide open. Such is the case this year.

Obviously, 2 months is a long time in politics, particularly when you're talking inside baseball like this. It takes a long time for a politician to introduce themselves to "the people." It takes considerably less time for them to introduce themselves to the members of the Democratic National Committee, since there are only around 400 of them, and since they already have some familiarity with all the plausible contenders. The point is, a late entry could shake things up. However, at the moment, the clear frontrunner is Ken Martin, chair of Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

Why does this matter? Well, here's a rundown of some recent DNC Chair elections:

• In December 1972, the Democrats chose Bob Strauss of Texas, a Southern Democrat, as chair, and in the next election their candidate was Jimmy Carter, a Southern Democrat.
  
  
• In 1985, the Democrats chose Paul Kirk, a Massachusetts Democrat, and in the next election their candidate was Michael Dukakis, a Massachusetts Democrat.
  
  
• In 2001, the Democrats chose Terry McAuliffe, a bland centrist from the East Coast, and in the next election their candidate was John Kerry, a bland centrist from the East Coast.
  
  
• In 2017, the Democrats chose Tom Perez, a moderate from the mid-Atlantic states, and in the next election their candidate was Joe Biden, a moderate from the mid-Atlantic states.

Sometimes the correlation is a little loose. And sometimes, there's not much correlation at all, such as when a Black New York Chair (Ron Brown) was in office for the nomination of a white Blue Dog Arkansan (Bill Clinton), or when an outspoken white New England liberal (Howard Dean) was in office for the nomination of a fairly moderate Black Illinoisan (Barack Obama). However, as far as very early data points go, this is more instructive than most. And so, if you have to place an early bet, then the current tea leaves suggest that the Party may go in a Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) direction. Possibly a Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) direction.

This is not to suggest that "the Party decides," incidentally. There may be some of that, particularly since the Democrats are planning to juggle their primary calendar in 2028, and the new chair is likely to favor their own state/region. Mostly, however, it's that the people who vote in DNC elections are similar in mindset to the people who vote in Democratic primaries. So, it's an early version of a poll of likely voters. (Z)