Dem
47
GOP
53
The two biggest races in 2025 will be the gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey. There are also local elections, including for mayor of New York City, but governors outrank mayors, so let's take a first look at those races now. We will have plenty of time for local elections in the coming months.
Virginia holds its gubernatorial elections the year after the presidential election. The Virginia state Constitution bans the governor from serving two consecutive terms, although there is no limit to the number of terms as long as they are not consecutive. In other words, the day the governor is inaugurated, he is already term limited. We say "he" here because in the glorious history of Virginia, no woman has ever been elected governor. We are going to go out on a limb here and say that 2025 could be the year that changes.
Virginia is an important state and many members of Congress and the administration live there, which alone makes the gubernatorial race a national affair. Also, the only major elections in the presidential year +1 are the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and New Jersey is usually a snoozer. Consequently, Virginia gets more attention than a state of its size usually gets.
One interesting fact is that in the last 50 years, the president's party lost the Virginia gubernatorial election every time but one, which bodes well for the Democrats.
There won't be primaries this time. Both parties already have their candidates. The Democrats will run Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and the Republicans will run Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA). Spanberger is white; Earle-Sears is Black. If Spanberger wins, it will be historic because, as we note above, no woman has ever been elected governor of Virginia. If Earle-Sears wins, it will also be historic because it will be the first time any Black woman has been elected governor of any state in all of American history. Virginia already had a Black male governor once (Doug Wilder).
The initial signs favor Spanberger. First, she is much younger, at 45. Earle-Sears is 60. Second, she is a prodigious fundraiser and has already banked $9 million for the race. Third, if Trump messes up or if he implements Schedule F and fires thousands of federal employees who live in Virginia, Earle-Sears is going to hear about it, big time. Fourth, Earle-Sears is an immigrant from Jamaica. If Trump spends 2025 running around yelling that immigrants are all dangerous people and should go back to from whence they came, that is surely going to cause some MAGA Republicans to think twice about voting for an immigrant. Fifth, as a member of the House Agriculture Committee, Spanberger knows quite a bit about farming and when she campaigns in the rural parts of the state, can talk turkey with the farmers. Sixth, Spanberger's last three races were tough and she is a battle-tested veteran. Earle-Sears has also run for office three times. She was elected to the House of Delegates in 2001, ran for the U.S. House in 2004 and got 31% of the vote, and coasted to lieutenant governor in 2021 on the coattails of popular Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA). Youngkin will support her, but he is not on the ballot. She is. Seventh, Earle-Sears is a devout Christian. Abortion could be an issue, with Spanberger pro-choice and Earle-Sears pro-life. Earle-Sears also opposes same-sex marriage. That said, Republicans do win the governorship of Virginia from time to time, including the current occupant of the governor's mansion in Richmond.
People are tempted to see the Virginia gubernatorial race as a bellwether for the midterms. Is that true? Well, here are the 10 most recent Virginia gubernatorial elections and the net change in the House midterms a year later.
| Year | Governor | House change next year | Prediction |
| 1985 | Gerald Baliles (D) | D+5 | Good |
| 1989 | Doug Wilder(D) | D+7 | Good |
| 1993 | George Allen (R) | R+54 | Good |
| 1997 | Jim Gilmore (R) | D+5 | Bad |
| 2001 | Mark Warner (D) | R+8 | Bad |
| 2005 | Tim Kaine (D) | D+31 | Good |
| 2009 | Bob McDonnell (R) | R+63 | Good |
| 2013 | Terry McAuliffe (D) | R+13 | Bad |
| 2017 | Ralph Northam (D) | D+41 | Good |
| 2021 | Glenn Youngin (R) | R+9 | Good |
It is not a huge sample, but for the most part, when a Democrat is elected governor of Virginia, Democrats pick up House seats the next year in the midterms. Similarly, when a Republican is elected governor, Republicans generally gain House seats the next year. It could be that when people are angry with the Democrats they elect a Republican as governor and everyone else follows through and votes for Republicans for Congress the next year, and vice-versa. So, Virginia could be a bellwether. (V)