Dem
47
GOP
53
As readers will recall, Congress kicked the budget can down the road in September, adopting a continuing resolution that funded the government through December 22. They did this to avoid taking any controversial stances right before an election. They also did it because they know that few politicians want to shut the government down at Christmas, or to be in Washington, working, during the holiday break. In other words, December 22 is a particularly motivating deadline.
There is little doubt that there will be another kicking of the can, especially since there are only 9 working days left until the deadline. It is also exceedingly probable that Mike Johnson will rely on Democratic votes to help with the kicking, since their demands are going to be more reasonable than those of the Freedom Caucusers. The main questions: (1) What goodies will the Democrats get in exchange for their support? and (2) Exactly how far into the future will the can be kicked?
The first of those two questions is easier to answer. The blue team's opening bid includes three early Christmas presents: (1) $100 billion in disaster relief funding, (2) renewal of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, which covers most federal job-training programs, and (3) renewal of the Older Americans Act, which funds programs for seniors. These are not outlandish asks, and much of the funding involved will go to red/purple states and/or Republican voters. So while Johnson isn't likely to agree to a figure as high as $100 billion (which is really just an opening bid), he is likely willing to give the Democrats much of what they want. The only real obstacle is whether that would be enough for the FC to try to block Johnson's bid to remain as speaker. Of course, the Democrats have the power to nullify that threat, as well, if they so choose.
The second question, by contrast, is much harder to answer because nobody has said anything about the timeframe they are looking at. In the absence of any information, then, we will hazard a guess that the can will be kicked until April 15. That will give the House Republican Conference roughly 10 days where it is back at full strength after the special elections to fill the seats of Elise Stefanik, Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, and will also add Tax Day as an X-factor to the maneuvering. That could provide a messaging opportunity (e.g., "On this Tax Day, we are pleased to announce a deal that will reduce your tax burden next year..."). Or, it could provide a distraction, if the budget ends up being controversial. (Z)