Dem 51
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GOP 49
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New Polls Are Not Favorable to Biden

A new YouGov poll of likely voters taken for CBS starting the day after the debate until Tuesday has Donald Trump at 50% and Joe Biden at 48% nationally. In the battleground states, Trump leads 51% to 48%. Last month, Biden led in the battleground states 50% to 49%.

Worse yet, half of Biden's 2020 voters think he should not be running this year. They are less likely to vote for him again now and more likely to vote for Trump or a third-party candidate. Also bad news for Biden is that 90% of registered Republicans will definitely vote, vs. 81% of registered Democrats and 71% of independents.

Even worse is a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters taken entirely after the debate. In this one, Trump led Biden 48% to 42%. A month ago, Trump led by 2 points; now it is 6 points. A full 80% of respondents and 76% of Democrats said Biden is too old to be reelected. Two-thirds wanted him replaced by another Democrat.

Now on to a Siena College poll sponsored by The New York Times. It is similar to the WSJ poll, with Trump leading registered voters 49% to 41% and also leading among likely voters 49% to 43%. These numbers are outside the margin of error and much worse for Biden than earlier polls. The crosstabs show that every demographic says Biden is too old. The Siena poll can be compared to a Siena poll taken before the debate. Trump has picked up 3 points among both likely voters and registered voters. Before the debate, Democrats wanted to keep Biden 52% to 45%. Now that margin has dropped to 1 point, 48% to 47%. In contrast, 83% of Republicans want to keep Biden (vs. 80% pre-debate). That's not a good sign, as the Republicans see Biden as easily beatable.

A couple more polls like this and Biden will be in very deep doo-doo. But before leaping to any conclusions, read on. (V)

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