Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Vance Hasn't Gotten the Call Yet

Since the Republican National Convention is next week, it is likely that Donald Trump will announce his running mate this week to maximize the amount of publicity it gets. Doing it at the convention would ruin a good PR opportunity and Trump is very conscious of PR. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), one of the leading contenders for the bottom of the Republican ticket, also went on Meet the Press yesterday, and said Trump hasn't called him yet, one way or another. We are assuming that Trump has the decency to inform the runners-up that they didn't get the bucket of liquid, but maybe that's a big assumption. With Trump, it's all about him, not anyone else.

Vance would bring fire, and piles of Trumpism, to the campaign. He would love being an attack dog and is good at it. He is young and vigorous. He is also a straight white Christian male millionaire, something Trump supporters like very much. On the other hand, he would pull the ticket to the right and the Democrats would exploit that mercilessly. Also, in 2016, he was extremely negative about Trump. If he is the pick, count on videos from 2016 resurfacing. Additionally, there is a danger of him upstaging Trump, something Trump hates.

The other person thought to be at the top of Trump's list is Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND). He is bland and not much of an attack dog. However, he knows a lot of oil-company CEOs well and might be able to shake them down for contributions to the campaign. He could also toss in $100 million himself if Trump told him it's "pay to play." Burgum is a billionaire, which would allow the Democrats to talk about the "billionaires' ticket" vs. the "people's ticket." They probably are praying for that outcome, since Burgum doesn't actually bring much to the ticket in terms of new voters or new states.

Trump being Trump, he could surprise everyone and pick a woman or someone completely off the radar now, but the rumor mill is concentrating on these two, not on Sarah Palin or some equally weird choice. (V)

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