Dem
51

GOP
49

It has been 2 weeks since the debate now. The dust has mostly settled. Did it change anything? Well, there have been lots of national polls, but here we track the electoral vote, not the national polls. If you click on the link Electoral-vote graphs to the left of the map, you see the time series for the electoral vote scores on a daily basis for elections going back to 2004. This one doesn't look so rosy for Biden at the moment, but what about the debate? Did he crash after it? Here is the top graph from that page:

This graph shows the electoral votes from every state, even those states where it is a statistical tie. If a candidate is ahead 46% to 45%, he gets the electoral votes for the state.

The second graph of the page counts only those states where the difference is at least 5 points, that is, outside the margin of error. 46% to 45% tells us nothing (besides it is close), but 46% to 41% means one of the candidates is really ahead. Here is that graph.

This one gives a different picture. While Trump is ahead, neither candidate has been consistently at or above 270 for more than a couple of days. Since the close states could go either way, the election is far from over.

Getting back to our point about the debate, it doesn't seem to have had an enormous effect. In the top graph, Trump had 306 EVs the day of the debate. Yesterday he had 305, but with today's new Virginia poll he has 318, thus up slightly. In the lower graph (where statistical ties are omitted), Trump had 240 EVs on June 27 and now has 233 EVs. Of course, being ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin now is better than being behind by 1 point on June 27, even though both are statistical ties. All in all, it doesn't seem that the debate changed a lot. Here you can see the June 27 map and today's map side by side. (V)

This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

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