Jun.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Voters in Five States, DC Head to the Polls

Voters in New Jersey, Montana, Iowa, New Mexico, South Dakota and Washington, DC, cast ballots yesterday. Here are the notable results:

• President: The top two finishers in the various presidential primaries:
  
  

  	Republican		Democratic
  State	1st Place	2nd Place	1st Place	2nd Place
  Iowa	N/A (held 1/15)		N/A (held 3/5)
  Montana	Donald Trump, 90.8%	No preference, 9.2%	Joe Biden, 91.6%	No preference, 8.4%
  New Jersey	Trump, Uncontested		Biden, 88.5%	Uncommitted, 8.7%
  New Mexico	Trump, 84.5%	Nikki Haley, 8.6%	Biden, 83.5%	Uncommitted, 9.7%
  South Dakota	Trump, Uncontested		Biden, 74.6%	Marianne Williamson, 11.6%
  Washington, DC	N/A (held 3/3)		Biden, 87.2%	Williamson, 4.5%

  
  There is no evidence here that Donald Trump is being hurt by his felony convictions. That said, any conclusions you want to draw are going to be based on a grand total of two states, one of them very red and with an open primary (that would be Montana, of course).
  
  Perhaps you would like to see a few more states' primary votes before you make any judgments? Yes, us too. Unfortunately, this is the end of the line for the Republican nomination process—there are no more GOP primaries or caucuses this cycle. So, it's just those two states. And both of them allow early voting, so some percentage of the ballots were cast before it was known that Trump is a felon.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, New Jersey: Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) advanced easily, taking 75% of the vote. He will match up against hotelier Curtis Bashaw (R), who is wealthy enough to self-fund much of his campaign. The fairly centrist (by modern GOP standards) Bashaw defeated the Donald Trump-endorsed Christine Serrano Glassner (R), 45.6% to 38.6% (with several other candidates collecting the rest).
  
  New Jersey hasn't sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate in over half a century; the only possible way that Kim will have to sweat is if Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is acquitted in his ongoing corruption trial. The Senator registered as an independent last week, and says he will run if he is not convicted. At the moment, Menendez is no threat to Kim, thanks to the stench of corruption. But if he's exonerated? Who knows? Anyone could win a three-way race.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) absolutely pulverized his foolhardy primary opponent, Michael Hummert, laying claim to 97.1% of the vote. Tester will now face Tim Sheehy (R), who easily dispatched former Montana Secretary of State and Public Service Commissioner Brad Johnson (R), 73.6% to 19.5%. Sheehy is a veteran and a Republican in a veteran-friendly red state. However, he also has no experience in elective office, is something of a carpetbagger, and has some baggage, such as the fishiness surrounding the story of how (and whether) he was wounded in combat.
  
  
• IA-01: Tuesday's primary states, among them, have an unusually large number of competitive House seats (nine in total). It is a testament to the art of gerrymandering that, for example, a large state like Texas has two competitive seats, while a smaller state like Iowa has three. Among those is the R+3 IA-01, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) won a surprisingly close primary, 56% to 44% over far-right challenger David Pautsch. Miller-Meeks will now face off against state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who is running on kitchen-table issues.
  
  
• IA-02: The contest in this R+4 district will be between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and small business owner Sarah Corkery (D), which is not a surprise because they were both unopposed. Corkery has built her campaign, first and foremost, on healthcare access.
  
  
• IA-03: Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) will try to hold his R+3 district against veteran and political operative Lanon Baccam (D). Baccam is a centrist, although he is also the only Iowa Democratic candidate among the three listed here whose website specifically mentions reproductive rights. He is also the son of Laotian immigrants. The Democratic establishment likes their chances here, and so is lavishing support on Baccam.
  
  
• NJ-02: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) was unchallenged in his R+5 district. He will be pitted against entrepreneur Joseph Salerno (D), whose pitch primarily focuses on jobs, housing and the tax burden faced by the working class.
  
  
• NJ-05: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) is going to defend his D+4 seat against Mary Jo Guinchard (R), who easily won her primary with 69.8% of the vote. Guinchard is a former singer and actor who has also served in a variety of municipal offices. She is anti-choice and encourages people to call her "MAGA Mary." You can judge for yourself how good a fit that is for a Democratic-leaning district with an incumbent 4-term congressman.
  
  
• NJ-07: Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ) is very much at risk in this R+1 district; his support for Donald Trump, and his unwillingness to hold town halls, talk to reporters, or otherwise engage with the public, make him somewhat unpopular. He survived a primary challenge, and will now lock horns with political newcomer and progressive Sue Altman, who has big-time support from EMILY's List. This one should be a barnburner.
  
  
• NJ-08: This is one of two House races we have listed here that is of interest for reasons other than being competitive (the district is D+22). It's the district of Rep. Rob Menendez Jr. (D-NJ) who, fairly or not, is being dragged down by his old man. Nonetheless, Junior survived his primary, taking 53.7% of the vote. He will cruise to victory in November, obviously.
  
  
• NJ-10: This is the other non-competitive race, since the district is D+30. Here, Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ) won his uncontested primary. He will not be able to savor his victory, however, because he is dead. He expired after the deadline for ballot access, so the local Democratic organ will meet in a few weeks and pick a candidate to replace him. That candidate could be a talking donkey, and yet they will still steamroll Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a haberdasher who has never served in political office. Bucco's signature issue is that police need to be given more money and more power to maintain "law and order." That may not be a great fit for a district that is 48.5% Black.
  
  
• NM-01: Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-NM), whose district is D+5, was unopposed. However, the Republican primary was a nail biter. It appears that Steve Jones (R) has triumphed over Louie Sanchez, 51.4% to 48.6%. Jones' platform is: (1) God save the queen, and (2) Anarchy in the U.K. No wait, that's the wrong Steve Jones. The one in New Mexico is running on family values, MAGA and conspiratorial thinking. Stansbury doesn't appear to have too much to worry about.
  
  
• NM-02: Rep. Gabriel Vasquez (D-NM) already knew he would be defending his D+1 district against Yvette Herrell (R) because they were both unopposed. Herrell lost this seat to Xochitl Torres Small in 2018, won it from Small in 2020, then lost it to Vasquez in 2022. So, this will be her fourth run for the seat as she tries to even her record to .500. Each of the three previous elections was decided by two points or less, and this one presumably won't be any different. That said, her website rails against New Mexico's "late-term abortion tourism industry," which may not be a great match for the times.
  
  
• NM-03: Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-NM) will match up against Sharon Clahchischilliage (R) in this D+4 district, another case where both candidates were unopposed. Clahchischilliage is a member of the Navajo Nation and a former state representative. It is not easy to figure out what her issues are; all we know is that she loves guns, God and lower taxes. None of this comes from her website, incidentally, which says nothing about her platform.

That's the election news for now. This weekend, Guam and the Virgin Islands will hold their Democratic caucus (Guam) and primary (Virgin Islands). Then, next Tuesday, it's congressional primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina. (Z)