Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Democrats Are Going to Try to Flip State Chambers in Five States

Republicans have long understood that state legislatures are very important, but only with the Dobbs decision are Democrats coming to realize that, too. When the states couldn't unilaterally ban abortion, the blue team didn't care too much about the states. Now that they can, Democrats suddenly care about the states. Axios has a scoop that Democrats are now launching a multimillion-dollar effort to flip (or hold) state legislative chambers in five states: Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Here is the lay of the land now:

State Senate House
Arizona R+2 R+2
Michigan D+2 D+2
New Hampshire R+4 R+5
Pennsylvania R+6 D+2
Wisconsin R+12 R+29

In other words, Republicans have a two-seat majority in the Arizona Senate (in that case. 16R, 14D). All of the chambers in the first four states are clearly in play. Going after half a dozen Republicans in competitive districts could potentially flip the chamber (or, in the case of Michigan, strengthen the blue team's hold). Looking at the numbers for Wisconsin, however, might have you scratching your head. What? The reason Wisconsin is in play is that the state Supreme Court ruled that its highly gerrymandered map was unconstitutional. The new map is extremely competitive and Democrats could possibly win both chambers in a blue wave.

The States Project, founded by Daniel Squadron, is fundraising to flip Republican seats in the above legislatures. Squadron said: "Every dollar spent at the state legislative level is worth eons more than it would be at any other level." That's certainly true of all federal races. Another $100,000 in a U.S. Senate race means nothing, but $100,000 in a state Senate race can completely alter the race. Even a mere $1 million spread over 10-20 state legislative races can have a huge effect. The DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) has already raised $2.3 million for state races and is gradually getting the word out that a $20 donation to a state race has far more impact than a $200 donation to any congressional race, especially a high-profile Senate race. (V)

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