Nov.27

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Israel, Hezbollah Have a Deal

By the time you read this, the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will have ceased, ideally for the foreseeable future. This is because leaders on both sides have agreed to a ceasefire that was negotiated with significant input and pressure from the United States and France.

The broad contours of the deal are pretty basic, even if not all details are publicly known. First and foremost, the shooting stops (though Israel did get in one last, big volley right before the deadline—a sadly common feature of ceasefire deals in the 20th and 21st centuries). In addition, Israel has retained some ability to respond to further provocations from Hezbollah, should the need arise. This is the part that's hazy, as the specific allowances being granted to the Israeli government by the U.S. are currently secret. Finally, France and the U.S. will join the "tripartite mechanism" created after the previous Hezbollah-Israel war (in 2006), with the U.S. taking over as chair. The tripartite mechanism is basically an arbitration panel that tries to settle disputes between the two sides. It was originally made up of Lebanon, Israel and a contingent from the United Nations. With France and the U.S. joining up, it's now a quinquepartite mechanism, though we doubt that label will catch on, since very few people know that word.

And now, here are some questions. We do not presume to know the answers to them; again, this is way far away from our area of expertise:

1. Will the peace last?: Although we don't have any expertise here, this is a question that many other people, who do have expertise, have weighed in on. In short, Hezbollah and its two backers (Lebanon and Iran) have been worn down by this conflict, and continuing it was getting difficult. Meanwhile, Israel is less worn down, but is still stretched thin by fighting on three fronts. Plus, Israel has largely achieved what it wanted to achieve, in terms of moving unwanted people out of its territory. Since neither side is strongly motivated to keep fighting, there's a pretty good chance the peace will hold for a while, particularly if it survives the delicate first couple of weeks.
   
   
2. Will Joe Biden get any credit for this?: He really should, since he and his envoy, Amos Hochstein, were the key figures in bringing the peace agreement to fruition. That said, Republicans don't give Biden credit for anything, ever. And many of the Democrats, and others, who have been voting based on events in that part of the world, have already dismissed Biden as "Genocide Joe." They are not likely to change their views, even when presented with evidence that runs pretty contrary to those views.
   
   
3. Will Donald Trump get any credit for this?: He really shouldn't, since he and his team didn't have anything to do with it (although they have been getting briefings). That said, the Republican spin machine is very powerful, and we can envision something along these lines: "Hezbollah knew they had to get while the gettin' was good, because in just a few weeks, there will be a new sheriff in town."
   
   
4. Will it even have a domestic political impact?: Maybe, but maybe not. Do you know, off the top of your head, how long Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting? The answer is 14 months. And yet, that part of the conflict has not gotten a fraction of the attention, either from the media or from protesters, that Gaza has. It is true that more people have died in Gaza, but the impacts on the Lebanese people have been nothing to sneeze at. Over 5,000 dead, over 1 million people displaced, as well as much famine, shortage of supplies, etc. Nonetheless, for whatever reason, this really hasn't moved the needle much. So, maybe the news of the ceasefire will be met with a shrug.

The bad news here is that the situation in Gaza is no closer to a resolution today than it was yesterday, and there's every reason to think things will get worse for those people before they get better, starting on, oh, say, January 20 of next year. The good news here is that because Israel-Hezbollah involved numerous foreign actors, including the large and rather dangerous nation of Iran, it was the part of the conflict most likely to spiral out of control and possibly turn into something much bigger. Now, the chances of that are much reduced. (Z)