Nov.27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Who Are the Senate's (Potential) Rebels?

We've written quite a bit about Donald Trump's first wave(s) of nominees, and have pointed out some of them who might struggle to be confirmed. That list includes Pete Hegseth (Defense), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (HHS), Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) and John Phelan (Navy). We thought it was about time to take a look at the other side of the equation, and try to identify where the Republican "no" votes might come from. In alphabetical order, here are the ten most likely roadblocks:

1. Bill Cassidy (LA): He is a physician, is pro-vaxx, and is about to take over the Senate's Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Cassidy may not be too keen to vote to approve quack and quack-adjacent nominees. Oh, and he's one of three Republican members of the 119th Senate who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment.
   
   
2. Susan Collins (ME): It is true that Collins pretends to be more moderate than she really is. However, it is also true that she's the only Republican senator up for reelection in 2026 in a state Kamala Harris won. It is further true that she, like Cassidy, voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment hearing. She might well hold the line on some of the crazypants nominees.
   
   
3. John Cornyn (TX): Cornyn is a Reagan Republican (or, really, a Bush Republican, since he's from Texas). He has also been angling to take over leadership of the Senate, which obviously didn't happen. He'll turn 73 next year, and may decide the time has come to wind things down. If so, he could find himself free to vote his politics, as opposed to voting for what IS politic.
   
   
4. John Curtis (UT): Among ruby-red states, Utah is the least Trump-friendly. The sizable LDS population is none too interested in what the Democrats are selling, but they also don't like Trump's cruel instincts or his total lack of charity. Curtis ran to replace Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) as a centrist who will hold Trump at arm's length. And although he's not even in the Senate yet, he helped scuttle the Matt Gaetz nomination. What we're saying here is that we could be looking at another Romney, except with a spine (and note that even Romney voted to convict Trump during the second impeachment).
   
   
5. Joni Ernst (IA): She is, at least outwardly, pretty Trumpy. However, she also represents a state that is very dependent on both subsidies and the trading of farm products to other countries. Trump's policies could be problematic for her, on both fronts. Oh, and Iowa is closer to being purple than you might think, and Ernst has to win reelection in a non-presidential year in 2026.
   
   
6. Mitch McConnell (KY): He hates Trump and, at this point in his career, he has nothing to lose. He hasn't said if he will run for reelection in 2026. He would be almost 91 at the end of another Senate term. Turtles live a long time if they can bask in the sun, but his basking days are over and even they don't live forever. The smart money is betting that he won't run for reelection in 2026, thus freeing him up to vote as he pleases. He's already promised that "I'm going to make John McCain sound like a dove," so there could be real problems here for unqualified/isolationist military establishment nominees, like Hegseth. Oh, and McConnell is another of the senators who helped bring down Matt Gaetz.
   
   
7. Lisa Murkowski (AK): She is the least reliable Republican vote in the Senate. Of course, she's the third (and final) member of the 119th Senate who voted to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial. She also does not see eye-to-eye with Trump on policy a lot of the time. Further, because of Alaska's ranked choice voting, she doesn't have to worry about being primaried by a nutty Trumper. Thus far, she's been the most outspokenly critical of many of Trump's nominees. She's also the only Republican senator who says openly that she did not vote for Trump this year.
   
   
8. John Thune (SD): If Thune actually votes against Trump, it will likely be because of the parliamentary rule that only someone on the "winning" side can bring a matter up for reconsideration. So, for example, if Gabbard is going down in flames, and Thune thinks he'd like to take another bite at the apple in the future, it would generally be on him as Majority Leader to switch his vote to "no" so he would be able to bring her up again. Behind the scenes, however, Thune will have primary responsibility (aided by the advice of close ally McConnell) for trying to tamp down the worst elements of Trumpism. Only he knows what he thinks those are, however.
   
   
9. Thom Tillis (NC): As we've written previously, Tillis is up in 2026 in a state that just elected a slate of Democratic officeholders statewide. He can't veer too far left, or he'll get primaried. He can't veer too far right, or he could be in trouble in the general. He'll have to proceed cautiously, but he certainly has political cover for voting against Trump on matters that might hurt North Carolina (for example, the state exports a lot of tobacco, and would not be happy about a bunch of protectionists running the economy). In 2026, he can tell conservatives that "I'm a North Carolinian first and a Trumper second" and he can tell moderates "See, I don't just blindly follow the party line."
   
   
10. Todd Young (IN): Because Young comes from a red state, the automatic assumption is that he's Trumpy. In fact, he is not. Don't look now, but he pointedly did not endorse Trump this cycle. Young is also a Navy vet and a big believer in NATO and other international alliances, so that could put him at loggerheads with the President-elect sometimes. He probably cares very much who is secretary of the Navy.

We would be remiss if we did not note that it's a two-way street, and there are at least some Democrats who might cross the aisle, depending on the circumstances. Here are the five non-Republicans most likely to do that:

1. John Fetterman (D-PA): Among the senators who actually call themselves Democrats, Fetterman is probably the biggest wildcard remaining. He marches to the beat of his own drum, has impeccable left-wing bonafides on some issues (say, labor concerns) and is quite right-wing on others (say, Israel). Because this is his "brand," he can get away with bucking the party line sometimes. Also, he does eventually have to run for reelection (in 2028) in a state that Trump just won—albeit by a hair.
   
   
2. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): There are some Democrats who might be a bit more conservative than is publicly known, as Joe Manchin (I-WV), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and sometimes Jon Tester (D-MT) took nearly all the withering fire when torpedoing legislation that was a little too lefty for their tastes. Now, all three of them are gone, and there's gotta be some Democrat who is now the most centrist/Blue Dog-like. Kelly is a candidate for that mantle, coming from a purple state, as he does. In particular, he might have to line up with Trump, sometimes, especially on border-related matters.
   
   
3. Angus King (I-ME): There's a reason he's an I and not a D; he votes liberal about 60% of the time, conservative the other 40%. The things he leans right on don't align well with Trumpism, generally speaking, although King is somewhat friendly to trade protectionism.
   
   
4. Jon Ossoff (D-GA): He's got to play a similar game to Thom Tillis, in that he's up in 2026, and in a state that was pretty red this year. However, while Tillis is at risk of being primaried by a nutter, Ossoff probably isn't, because Democrats are not likely to risk losing their most electable candidate. That means that Ossoff has both cover and motivation to tack center-ward or right-ward, on occasion.
   
   
5. Gary Peters (D-MI): He's up in 2026 in a state Trump won (albeit barely). Peters tends to be a loyal party man, but he does represent a state that produces a lot of cars. So, he might find something in Trump's economic policy that is amenable, for example, high tariffs on Chinese cars.

We wrote this primarily with an eye towards confirming appointments, but it also applies to legislation. Most of these people will remain on their side of the aisle most of the time, but some of them will definitely cross, on occasion. Also, let us offer another reminder that nominees are rarely rejected outright; it's much more common for senators to work behind the scenes to secure their withdrawal, so everyone can save face. (Z)