Dem
47
GOP
53
At the moment, 432 of the 435 House races have been called. Republicans have locked down 219 seats and Democrats have locked down 213 seats. Three are still too close to call, pending recounts. They are CA-13, CA-45, and IA-01. Here are the latest tallies in them (asterisks denote incumbents):
| District | Democrat | Dem votes | Dem % | Republican | Rep. votes | Rep. % | Difference |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray | 104,503 | 50.0% | John Duarte* | 104,321 | 50.0% | 182 |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran | 157,960 | 50.1% | Michelle Steel* | 157,347 | 49.9% | 613 |
| IA-01 | Christina Bohanan | 206,156 | 49.9% | Marianette Miller-Meeks* | 206,956 | 50.1% | 800 |
Suppose the current leaders in all three races win. Then the House will be 220 R, 215 D. So the Republicans will be able to tolerate two defections on any vote, resulting in 218 R, 217 D votes. That's good enough. Three defections will be fatal, though, if the Democrats stick together.
But there is more. Donald Trump has plucked two House Republicans for his administration. These are Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has said he will not take his seat in the 119th Congress. When Waltz and Stefanik resign, expected sometime in January, the House could be 217 R, 215 D until the vacant House seats are filled by special elections, probably not until April. This means that if any bills come up in February or March, and maybe for longer than that, a single Republican defection will tank the bill by forcing a 216-216 tie. On a tie, the bill fails.
De facto, this means every Republican in the House will have a veto over every bill for several months. Donald Trump's first 100 days could be rocky. When Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), chair of the Freedom Caucus, figures this out, he will be ecstatic. He will often be able to find some member willing to blackmail Trump into doing something that will not be popular (for example, shutting down the government unless Trump agrees to that member's ideas about the budget). It could be rough, if the three pending House elections end up the way they are now. (V)