Apr.16

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Election News: A Rough Year to Be an Incumbent?

It may only be April, but the election-related news is coming fast and furious. Here's a rundown of the stories from the last few days:

• Fundraising: Q1 ended on March 31, and the FEC deadline for fundraising reports was April 10, so we now have a picture of how the money race is going. With the usual caveats that it's early, and that incumbents generally enjoy a huge advantage, the early indications are that 2026 is going to be even more of a "throw the bums out" election than is usually the case with midterms. First, because Democrats, on the whole, are outraising Republicans (i.e., the party in power). Second, because in the places where there are going to be high-profile, knock-down, drag-out Republican primaries, the money is generally flowing to both sides of each cage match. So, there are going to be some sitting GOP officeholders who get primaried, and there are going to be others who survive, but enter the general election season bloodied and with a depleted war chest.
  
  
• Progressive Power: That said, there could be some bloody primaries on the left side of the aisle, as well. The very biggest fundraisers in Q1 were Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), with $11.4 million, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), with $9.6 million. This is not terribly surprising, since not only are they popular with the base, and not only do they have excellent e-mail lists for fundraising pitches, they have been on a "resistance" tour, holding rallies for the anti-Trump crowd. This past weekend, they drew nearly 40,000 people for an event in downtown Los Angeles. How they managed to squeeze all the cars needed to transport 40,000 people into the roughly six parking spots available in DTLA, we do not know.
  
  In any event, it's certainly possible that AOC will use that money in a challenge to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). If so, then that makes life harder for one particular incumbent. Alternatively, she might use it to help fund young, progressive challengers across the nation. Certainly that is what Sanders is going to do; he's not up again until 2030. Add to that the fact that DNC vice chair and progressive activist David Hogg announced yesterday that the PAC he founded and leads, Leaders We Deserve, will spend $20 million to try to elect younger officeholders.
  
  Note, incidentally, that while Republicans look likely to get down and dirty in places where the eventual winner could face a tough general election, Hogg has stated outright, and the other two have implied, that they are going to target safe districts and states. In other words, they want to do what AOC did, and swap out an old Democrat in a deep-blue district for a young Democrat in a deep-blue district. They do not want to do anything that might reduce the Party's odds of retaking the House (and maybe the Senate).
  
  
• California Governor?: The reason for the question mark there is that it's not entirely clear whether or not we are talking about a poll of the California governor's race. UC Berkeley's Citrin Center, with funding from Politico, ran an unusual poll in which the only person asked about was Kamala Harris. Adding to the unusual-ness, the pollster talked to two different groups of people, "political influencers" (specifically meaning people who have a paid subscription to Politico Pro, an expensive publication that gets down in the weeds for people who need to know exactly what happened in committee when the farm bill was marked up, etc.) and registered voters. And the unusual whipped cream on the already unusual cake is that respondents were asked to describe what emotion they have when thinking of a Harris gubernatorial run: "joyful," "mostly excited," "indifferent," "irritated," "outraged," "hopeless," or other.
  
  We gotta be honest, it seems pretty squishy to us. That said, the basic result is that "political insiders" are pretty neutral about Harris running, while registered voters appear to quite like the idea. In the latter group, 33% said they were "joyful" while 41% said they were "mostly excited." Make of that result what you will. Harris has already said she'll make a decision by the end of summer, so the days of will-she-or-won't-she speculation, and presumably the days of squishy, touchy-feely polls, will soon be at an end.
  
  
• Iowa Governor: Over the weekend, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) announced that she would not stand for reelection next year.
  
  Why, exactly, did she decide to stand down? One possibility is that she's been in political office for 31 straight years, and the governor's mansion for nearly a decade, and she's had her fill. A second possibility is that she's 65, and ready to step away from the grind and spend time with her grandkids. A third possibility is that she is not especially Trumpy, and she backed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the 2024 Iowa caucuses, which could well make for an ugly race this time around. Whatever it is, she's done.
  
  Given that everyone expected Reynolds to run again, the only Republican officially in the race is former state representative Brad Sherman, who is most certainly not the Brad Sherman currently representing CA-32 in the House of Representatives. The latter Sherman is liberal, Jewish, and a graduate of both UCLA and Harvard. The former Sherman is conservative, a Bible-thumping evangelical, and the holder of a high school diploma. He worships both Jesus and Donald Trump, and it's not clear in which order those two fellows rank. We guess Sherman (the Iowan, not the Californian) really admires men who believe they are God's gift to mankind.
  
  Undoubtedly, given that Sherman is very far right, and is an unknown, there will be other Republicans who jump in now that they don't have to face Reynolds. Rep. Zach Nunn and Iowa AG Brenna Bird have hinted at a run, and even if they don't throw their hats in the ring, the GOP bench is deep in Iowa, given how red the state has been for the last generation or so. The only Democrat to declare so far is Paul Dahl, who is a bus driver that likes to run for political office.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Michigan: Former representative Mike Rogers (R), who retired from the House in 2015, made it official and announced that he will run for the seat that will be left open by the retirement of Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). He is the only Republican in the race right now, though media personality/failed gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, Rep. Bill Huizenga and pastor Lorenzo Sewell have all expressed interest.
  
  Rogers already ran for the Senate in 2024, and was defeated by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in a squeaker, 48.64% to 48.30%. So, with that experience in hand, and with greater name recognition, this could be his moment. On the other hand, Rogers ran about a point behind Donald Trump, and the midterms figure to be less favorable to Republicans than the presidential cycle was. Also, the Democrats have a deep bench, and will certainly end up with a strong candidate. For what it is worth, early polling has Rogers down a few points to every plausible Democratic candidate, except Rep. Haley Stevens.
  
  
• U.S. House, CA-22: CA-22 is R+1 and is currently represented by Rep. David Valadao (R). It is also 73% Latino. Put all those factoids together, and you end up with a situation where Latino Democrats are going to come out of the woodwork to take a shot at the gig. The first of those has just announced; it's Visalia school board trustee Randy Villegas. He plans to run as a left-wing populist, and to focus on the evils of Donald Trump and Elon Musk. It is probable that he will eventually be joined by former assemblyman Rudy Salas, who is more moderate, and who faced off against Valadao, and lost by 7 points, in 2024.
  
  Incidentally, CA-22 is currently the "median" district for PVI. In other words, there are 217 bluer districts and 217 redder districts. So, the Democrats' fate there is at least somewhat instructive. It will also be a useful test of how well the Bernie message plays in places that are not deep blue. Do keep in mind that during Sanders' second presidential run, his two biggest sources of support were young people and Latinos.
  
  
• U.S. House, MI-13: MI-13 is D+22, so there's no question which party will own the seat in the next Congress, or the one after that, or the one after that. However, the current holder of the seat, Shri Thanedar (D), could be an awkward fit. He's Indian-American in a district that is plurality Black, and is less than 3% Asian. He's a multimillionaire who self-funds his political races. And he's also 70, at a time when Democratic voters appear to be looking for, well, not septuagenarians or octogenarians.
  
  Former state Sen. Adam Hollier, who is Black, not a multimillionaire, and just 39 years old, is hoping that one of these things proves to be Thanedar's Achilles' heel, and so announced a challenge this week. Hollier has taken on Thanedar twice before, however, and lost twice before, so it's not entirely clear to us why this time would be different.
  
  
• New York City Mayor: Of all the incumbents who have things to worry about, there is probably no incumbent in more danger than New York City Mayor Eric Adams. He's a crook who is wildly unpopular with the people who would need to vote for him. And he's drawn a heavyweight challenger in Andrew Cuomo, who seems to have put his past scandals behind him.
  
  Cuomo got some good news this week, and some bad news. The good news is that he landed the endorsements of two of New York City's most prominent labor unions, 32BJ SEIU (service workers) and Hotel and Gaming Trades Council (hotel and casino workers). "This moment calls for someone who doesn't stay home in times of crisis and who does not back down from a fight when things get tough," said 32BJ SEIU president Manny Pastreich, in an apparent swipe at Adams.
  
  The bad news for Cuomo is that his team submitted the paperwork for $2.5 million in matching election funds from the city, and got rejected. The reason for the rejection was mistakes in the paperwork (Adams, by contrast, got rejected for being corrupt). So, Team Cuomo will be able to fix the mistakes, and get the money eventually. Still, it's not a good look for someone running on a message of "I'm competent and I know how the system works."
  
  Incidentally, we are well aware that Adams is not running as a Democrat, and that any showdown with Cuomo will have to wait until the general election. Still, that is where this looks to be headed, especially since the New York City GOP has such trouble coming up with a serious candidate.

That is an awful lot of election news, given that Election Day 2025 is 202 days away, and Election Day 2026 is 567 days away. (Z)