Dem
47
GOP
53
Trade sounds very abstract, but it hugely affects many industries and many jobs. With Trump all over the map on it, it could well become a political issue in the 2026 and 2028 elections. The tariffs are paused, but the battles for the 2028 presidential nominations are just getting going.
Potential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who represents a state that exports oil, gas, beef, and many agricultural products, doesn't like tariffs. He recently said: "I worry, there are voices within the administration that want to see these tariffs continue forever and ever." Cruz wants to get all tariffs down to zero, to help his state's exports. This puts him against the current tariff hardliners, including potential presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Steve Bannon, who love tariffs, the bigger the better. By mid-2027, we should have a better idea of whether the current tariffs are working, and for whom. This issue could be a real policy difference between the candidates. Absent any policy differences, the GOP primaries could devolve into a contest of who is the Trumpiest of them all.
Nikki Haley, who missed the memo that there isn't much appetite among Republican voters for what she is selling, is apparently also planning a 2028 run. Like Cruz, she is anti-tariff. She sees a tariff as a tax (which it is) and she is anti-tax, and thus also anti-tariff.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is another likely 2028 contender. He is silent on tariffs, waiting to see which way the wind is blowing. In 2024, his sponsor was Elon Musk, who doesn't like tariffs because his companies import a lot of parts from China. If DeSantis wants Musk (or more specifically, his money), he will probably join the anti-tariff side. That will have Cruz, DeSantis, and Haley on one side and Bannon and Vance on the other. It could be interesting to watch. Imagine! A primary campaign about policy. (V)