At 7:35 a.m. Rome time today, Pope Francis died. Interestingly enough, the last person who had an audience with him was J.D. Vance, who converted to Catholicism in 2019 after being raised as an evangelical. His wife is a practicing Hindu. He takes her to church every week but feels bad about it.
The election of a new pope won't even start for a couple of weeks. If you want to see a movie about the process, fortunately one, Conclave, came out last year. It is a political thriller.
Although the pope is nominally a religious leader, recent ones have become increasingly political. Pope Francis emphasized Jesus' message about caring for the poor. Francis has had a long history of criticizing Donald Trump. In accordance with Francis' sympathy for the poor, he said that Trump's plan for mass deportation would be "disgraceful." Francis was also accepting of LGBTQ+ Catholics and said that priests could bless (but not marry) same-sex couples.
The pope's views no doubt have some impact on American Catholics. If he believes that God loves all good Catholics, even gay ones, it is surely harder for Catholics to hate them. After all, if God loves someone, who are you to hate him or her? Consequently, it matters for U.S. politics who the next pope is. The invisible primary has long been underway. The pope is generally chosen from among the 135 cardinals, but that is not a formal requirement. Any male Catholic is a possibility. We wonder what Vance would do if they picked him and he had to choose between the vice presidency and the papacy. Some papal observers think that these eight are the most papabile.
Here is a different list. Parolin, Sarah, and Tagle are the only ones on both lists. Expect more lists in the days to come.
But it could be a dark horse (dark sheep?). Francis was not polling well before his election and sort of came out of nowhere. In the end, the choice is a mix of ideology, theology, politics, personality, age, and lobbying skill. If the cardinals have trouble agreeing on a pope, one potential out is kicking the can down the road by choosing an elderly pope who is expected to go visit the big church in the sky shortly. In contrast, a young one is more likely to have a long reign and lock in his preferences permanently.
One thing to keep in mind is that most Catholics are no longer living in Europe or North America, and growth is mostly in Third World countries, so a pope from there is a real possibility. Also important is that Francis has appointed two-thirds of the cardinals who are eligible to vote (those under 80) and he appointed mostly people who think like him. This suggests that a progressive cardinal from Africa, Asia, or South America might have the edge. It takes a two-thirds majority to win the election, so horses are traded and sausages are made. Thank heaven the whole election process usually takes at most 4 weeks, not 4 years. (V)