Dem
47
GOP
53
We cover elections, even foreign ones sometimes, and soon a new pope will be elected, so let's go. There aren't any polls, since there are only 135 voters and it would be hard to get a statistically valid sample, assuming any of the 135 voters would be willing to talk, which is exceedingly unlikely. But there is another way to guess: the wisdom of crowds. Yup, there is a betting market where, if you are good at picking popes, you can make some money. Here are the probabilities on Polymarket derived from the bets already placed:
To the extent that the bettors know what they are doing, Pietro Parolin and Luis Tagle are the clear favorites. However, the volume of bets is only $3 million (compared to $55 million on the Canadian election). Of course people have known about the Canadian election for much longer than the papal election. It is unlikely that the late Pope Francis would have been amused by a betting market on his successor. He didn't think too much of the idea that the marketplace can solve all problems. However, there is no canon law forbidding betting on the next pope.
The last time around, the betting market didn't do so well. The favorites were Angelo Scola of Italy and Peter Turkson of Ghana. As it turned out, the #15 guy, Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina, won the gold medal. You are thus forewarned. (V)