Dem
47
GOP
53
As we have pointed out recently, Donald Trump's approval is under water on the economy. Only 37% approve of his economic program. This is noteworthy because many people voted for him in November because they thought he would fix Joe Biden's "mistakes." Now, as we noted over the weekend, a Washington Post-ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday morning shows that Trump is also under water in immigration, his other supposed strong point.
A majority of Americans—51%—disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, with 47% approving. Broken down by partisanship, 90% of Democrats, 56% of independents, and 11% of Republicans disapprove. Among other things, 42% want Kilmar Abrego Garcia to be brought home and 26% do not. Even on Trump's strongest issue—deporting migrants suspected of being members of a criminal gang—51% do not want them sent to El Salvador and 47% do.
Later in the day, the first New York Times/Siena College poll of 2025 was released. It covered many topics and got a lot of coverage. It is bad news for Donald Trump up and down the line. Here are five key takeaways from the poll:
Here are the numbers for the question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling..."
On all seven issues, Trump is under water. What is somewhat surprising is that his three worst areas are foreign policy-related, something people usually don't care about. On the "positive" side for Trump, his approval on the economy is 43% here, slightly better than the 37% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week. Still, if we average them to 40% approval, that is still not so great on what was supposed to be Trump's strongest issue and the one the voters care the most about. On the question of whether Trump "understands the problems facing people like you," he is at 44%, with only 31% of independents agreeing.
Many voters want to place limits on what the president can do, as follows.
It is clear that the voters do not want the president to usurp the powers of Congress. Perhaps Congress will take note of this, but we have our doubts.
Possibly even more troubling for Trump is that twice as many voters say Trump's policies have hurt them as say his policies have helped them. And remember, the full effect of the tariffs (higher prices and empty shelves) haven't hit yet.
Siena also asked about Elon Musk. He is very unpopular, with 56% having an unfavorable view of him and 35% having a favorable view. Musk does extremely poorly with white, college-educated voters, where 58% have a very unfavorable view of him, 8% a somewhat unfavorable view, 14% a somewhat favorable view, and 17% a very favorable view. Men like him much more than women and white people like him more than Black people (with 66% of Black people having a very unfavorable view of Musk).
Here are the full crosstabs.
Nate Cohn has drawn some insights from the poll. First, compared to other presidents at this point, Trump is in bad shape. Four years ago today, Joe Biden was still being compared to FDR. Even doomed administrations such as Jimmy Carter's or George W. Bush's second term were above water at the 100-day mark. For most presidents, it is only downhill after the first 100 days.
Second, compared to January 20, things look much worse for Trump. People back then were talking about a permanent realignment in favor of the Republicans due to Trump's (narrowly) winning the popular vote. Since then, talk of a permanent Republican majority has vanished and most of Trump's political capital has already been spent. His big, beautiful bill containing all his priorities hasn't passed yet and may have to be watered down quite a bit to get it through Congress.
Third, the things Trump has done so far are all by XO and many are illegal and are being batted down by the courts. He did not campaign on starting a trade war, taking a meat axe to the federal government, or trying to destroy the media, universities, and law firms. And he certainly did not promise to send immigrants to a gulag in El Salvador, he was just going to send them home. None of these things are popular.
Fourth, Trump is not out of the woods yet. The economy, immigration, and his authoritarian rule will only continue to drive down his approval during the next 45 months. If his approval falls into the 30s, many members of Congress, especially those up in 2026, may go looking for the place where they misplaced their spines. And if the Democrats win the House in 2026, Trump will face a reenergized opposition and will probably be impeached at least once. (V)