Dem
47
GOP
53
We concede, that headline is not exactly "breaking news." Nonetheless, Donald Trump continues to find new and inventive ways to harm Republican politicians as he serves his own needs and his own ego. The latest is his talk about running for and/or serving a third term in 2028.
We had
an item
last week about the Trump 2028 merch that the Trump family is now hawking to the rubes their supporters. A few
readers wrote in to suggest that maybe the Trump in question is Donald Jr. or Eric. We considered that possibility, but
then looked at the full range of products being sold (which we did not link to, for obvious reasons). Some of the
worthless crap stuff being sold, in addition to bearing the Trump 2028 "logo," also includes the tagline "Change
the Rules!" So, it's definitely Donald Sr. who is being referenced. Besides, Senior would never, ever abide by a
situation where Junior, or Eric, was more powerful than he.
Given the tagline, it would appear that Trump's approach to a third term—assuming he is serious—is to try to secure passage of a Constitutional amendment lifting the current 2-term limit. That, of course, is not going to happen. Beyond the fact that not a single Democrat in the House or Senate would vote for it (thus killing a proposed amendment right there), Trump won 31 states in 2024. Even if all of them supported an amendment, he would still need the backing of state legislatures in seven states among California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington. Again, not happening.
We concede that Trump could be laying the groundwork for a more nefarious power play. "Well, since the Democrats won't work with me to amend the Constitution—Very unfair!—I've decided I am not going to leave office on January 20, 2029." Or he could attempt an end-run around the Twenty-Second Amendment, getting elected as VP. Or, this whole Trump 2028 merch thing could just be about triggering the libs, or amusing himself with a little flex of his muscles.
Plan B (a Vance/Trump ticket) has two potential problems. First, the 12th Amendment states that someone not eligible to be president, say a 33-year-old, is also not eligible to be vice president. But the 22nd Amendment doesn't actually say Trump is ineligible to be president, just ineligible to be elected president. SCOTUS would have to decide this one. Second, suppose Vance double crossed Trump and refused to resign on Jan. 20, 2029, as planned?
Plan C, The only sure-fire legal way for Trump to get a third term would require all the stars to align. First, on Jan. 3, 2029, a Republican House would have to elect Trump as speaker. Second, a ticket like Ivanka/Junior would have to be elected president/vice president in 2028, with both resigning on Jan. 20, 2029, paving the way for the speaker to succeed to the presidency. But would the many women who want to see a female president really vote for Ivanka, especially if they know the whole thing is a sham?
Whatever is going on, it effectively freezes the Republicans' 2028 presidential nominating process. The Democrats are already getting going (hence our series of candidate profiles), and they will get going in earnest once Election Day 2026 has come and gone. But as long as Trump is a "presidential candidate," no other Republican can jump in, really, without implicitly challenging the throne and aggravating the MAGA base. The GOP would be better off if Trump would state, unequivocally, that he's not running in 2028, and any statements to the contrary were just idle talk. The problem for the Party is that maintaining the impression that he is running feeds Trump's ego, fills his wallet due to the Trump 2028 merch, and also gives him a little extra political capital since he's vaguely not a lame duck as long as he keeps open the possibility of a third term. So, he's not likely to drop this charade for a very long time. (Z)