After 100 days, presidents get a report card. It wasn't always like this, but FDR did so much in his first 100
days that since then, that has been the benchmark (a small step toward the metric system?).
There are stories about Donald Trump's 100th day everywhere; for example,
The New York Times,
The AP,
Politico,
U.S. News & World Report,
and
CNN.
The BBC even has a report in
Pidgin.
Surely, King Charles III is embarrassed. Just type "Trump's first 100 days" into your favorite search engine and you
will be inundated. If you want to read just one, we suggest
The Guardian.
If you can't bear to read this stuff at all and want someone to explain it to you in 56 seconds, here is a video
explainer:
Still with us? It's been a whirlwind. Law-abiding migrants and U.S. citizens deported, the world order shattered to
bits, violent criminals pardoned, hundreds of thousands of federal workers fired by someone who is not even an officer
of the United States, allies abroad torpedoed and enemies embraced, a trade war started, financial markets in turmoil,
and the rule of law under fire. We have never seen this much disruption in 100 days, at least not without half the
country seceding and making war on the other half. If you want a day-by-day summary of the main news, The
Guardian has a
good one
there, too. Let's look at the first 100 days by topic, though:
Economics: Trump was elected because people wanted the price of milk and eggs to go down.
So he started a trade war, which will make prices go up. Americans buy a lot of stuff from China, and if the 145% tariff
sticks around for a while, everything imported from China will get much more expensive. So far, Chinese President Xi
Jinping has shown no sign of being willing to deal with Trump. He is waiting for domestic pressure to force Trump's
hand. But even things from other countries may go up in price due to the general 10% tariffs on all other countries. The U.S.
imports $4 trillion in stuff every year. That's a lot of stuff. Some of it is under the radar, as many companies import
raw materials and parts for their end product. If the inputs get more expensive, even domestic companies will have to
raise prices. People aren't going to like that.
There is no evidence at all that Trump is going to try to tackle inflation, the issue that got him elected in the first place.
Trump has spooked the financial markets. They hate chaos. In the 3 days following the "Liberation Day" tariffs, the
S&P 500 dropped 10%, then when Trump changed course, it rebounded a bit at first, but is now still off 10% from its high of this
year, on Feb. 20. Here is the net change in the S&P 500 in the first 100 days of presidents since Richard Nixon.
Gee, Fox News may not have liked sleepy old Joe Biden, but the stock market sure did.
Immigration: Trump has certainly been busy on immigration, but based on his first 100
days, we would estimate the chance of his deporting all 11 million undocumented immigrants, as he promised, to be
roughly zero. He has deported perhaps a few thousand so far, many of those illegally and in defiance of the courts,
including a few U.S. citizens, which is totally illegal. And he has deported many of them to a foreign gulag with a life
sentence, not just dumping them in their home country and telling them not to come back. He certainly never promised that.
Trump has achieved some results, though. Here is a bar chart showing the number of encounters between the
Border Patrol and migrants outside the ports of entry—that is, illegal border crossings.
They are clearly way down, but they were trending down under Joe Biden.
While most of the drop is probably due to potential immigrants being scared to cross, some of it could be due to CBP
being distracted due to DEI and other non-border issues and just not functioning well. Also, don't rule out a little
book-cooking (which is very different from cookbooking).
Gutting the Government: One of the things Trump did that was totally unexpected was
installing Elon Musk as a kind of gut-the-government czar and allowing him to take a meat cleaver to the federal
government, killing programs required by law because Musk didn't like them, all in the name of efficiency. Despite
promises to remove $2 trillion in waste, Musk has at best removed $150 billion in programs, but fixing the mistakes he
made has cost $135 billion, so the savings are minimal. Still, he has caused a huge amount of disruption and ruined many
lives, all of it illegally. What Trump could have done (but was in too much of a hurry to do) is ask the compliant
Congress to defund programs he doesn't like. The effect might have been the same, but at least it would have been legal.
Musk's minions have swooped down on almost every government department, taken over, and copied huge amounts of data onto
their own laptops. What Musk intends to do with all this data is unknown. There have been many lawsuits about this.
Musk's behavior has been a real drag on Trump's approval, so he is slowly being phased out. Still, the Democrats now
have a potent talking point for 2026: fight oligarchy. Some of the people illegally fired are surely going to sue Musk
personally. Sympathetic juries may decide that the $148 million that Rudy Giuliani was ordered to pay two Georgia
election workers was small potatoes.
Some of Musk's "achievements" include dismantling USAID and firing 10,000 people, laying off 1,200 researchers at NIH,
cutting thousands of DoD employees, weakening national security, slashing the IRS workforces (which will reduce tax
enforcement and cause the deficit to climb), going after the Post Office (which people in rural areas depend on) and,
finally, reducing staffing at Social Security, which will affect millions of people. At least 200,000 positions have
been eliminated so far, very few of which were wasteful. It is not as though Musk inspected agencies carefully, found
waste, and cut it out. It was more like: "I have simply decided to cut your staffing by 40%."
Another thing that Trump did is "invite" government workers to resign. The incentive was not being fired for a few
months. Tens of thousands took the deal. Many others were simply fired by e-mail. The damage to the environment,
scientific research, catching billionaire tax cheats and much more will take years to fix and the process won't even
start until the Democrats next get the trifecta.
Another thing Trump is doing is implementing Schedule F, which reclassifies about 50,000 federal employees from being
civil servants (who can't be fired except for proven malfeasance) to political appointees who the president can fire for
simply not being enthusiastic enough for him personally. In short, in 100 days, he has badly messed up the government in
a way no previous president ever did.
At a cabinet meeting, Musk tried to boss around cabinet officers. Trump didn't like that and started to make it clear to
Musk that his power is limited and cabinet officers get to run their departments.
Rule of law: This is a biggie, although most people don't fully understand what is going
on. Trump stated his views on the rule of law clearly. He didn't say: "L'État, c'est moi," because: (1) he
doesn't speak French and (2) he knows nothing of history. But he did say "He who saves his country does not violate any
law." Nixon was slightly more elegant: "When the president does it, it is not illegal." We know how that worked out, and
for a much, much, much smaller crime (covering up a burglary).
Trump has pardoned about 1,500 people, including all the Jan. 6 rioters, even those who injured police officers. So much
for the Republicans being the party of law and order. He has skirted court orders by refusing to provide information
about what he did and when he did it. He has attacked multiple judges who have made rulings he doesn't like. It is
probably only a matter of time before he openly defies the Supreme Court.
He has ignored due process when deporting people. He has ordered people who have committed no crime to be snatched off
the street and disappeared without any opportunity to talk to a lawyer or have a court hearing. He has openly opposed
freedom of speech for people whose speech he doesn't like and had some of them arrested and locked up in a distant
prison (although mostly in the U.S., so far). He signed an XO that directly contradicts the Fourteenth Amendment on
birthright citizenship. He has talked about an (unconstitutional) third term in 2028.
He has intimidated the 10 biggest law firms in the country and got them to agree to give him billions of dollars of free
legal work for the "privilege" of entering courtrooms to argue cases for their clients. Even after they agree, in some
cases he violates his own agreements and goes back for more.
In short, his view of the law is that it is a weapon to punish his enemies but it does not apply to him at all. His
position is: What are you going to do about it?
Rule by Executive Order: Even though the Republicans have the trifecta, so far Trump has
signed only 5 bills into law, a stopgap-budget bill, three bills overturning Biden-era rules, and the Laken Riley Act,
which gives ICE more power to deport people accused of a crime, even before they are put on trial. His Big Beautiful
Everything Bill keeps getting pushed further into the future every day (more below). Instead, he has been governing by
executive order. He has signed more first-100-day XOs than any president in the past 100 years:
The problem with governing by XO is that the next president can cancel all his XOs on Day 1, but Trump doesn't think
long-term and much of his base can't see even as far as dinner time. Also, many of the XOs have been patently illegal
and the lower courts have already restrained him from enforcing them, pending full hearings. In the end, they have fed
the base enough red meat to give them all heart attacks, but little lasting change will have been achieved.
Retribution: Something that Trump cares about a lot—but which the Republican
leaders in Congress don't care about at all—is getting even with his (perceived) enemies. He has sued multiple
media outlets and gotten them to pay large amounts in damages rather than go to trial, even though their lawyers have
undoubtedly told their CEOs they would win. He also kicked the AP out of White House briefings, even though no truth is
ever disbursed there. Still, it is a symbolic punishment. The AP's crime: It didn't change the name of an international
body of water (Gulf of Mexico) to his preferred name (even though it did rename Mt. Denali to Mt. McKinley because
it is in U.S. territory and he does have that right).
He is going after top universities by cutting off funding the government has already agreed to. In the commercial
sector, this is called breach of contract and is a tort that the injured party can sue for and collect damages. Trump
has claimed it has something to do with antisemitism, but even if it did, which it doesn't, that doesn't give him the
authority to unilaterally suspend payments for cancer research just to get universities to lick his boots. So far, only
Harvard has defied him. That case will surely end up in the Supreme Court eventually. But universities are starting to
see that no matter how much they concede, he will simply come back for more. The real goal is to destroy them since they
are a kind of power center and train students to think and not just obey orders blindly.
Some of his nominees are openly champing at the bit to trump-up charges to arrest and imprison his political opponents.
Particularly enthusiastic about this are AG Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel. One other, who hasn't been confirmed
for a permanent position yet, is Ed Martin as U.S. attorney for D.C. He sees his primary job as punishing Trump's
enemies. Actual law enforcement is not on his agenda. He is so open about his goal that Senate confirmation may not be
so easy.
Foreign Policy: Trump has been unusually active in foreign policy, something few
presidents are unless they inherit a war somewhere. He allowed Musk to kill off USAID, which helps people around the
world, saves many lives by distributing free medicine and in many other ways, and builds a huge amount of goodwill for
less than 0.7% of the federal budget. But why stop pandemics from spreading in Africa? After all, germs can't fly.
That's why the COVID-19 virus never made it from China to the U.S.
Trump has gotten nearly all of America's friends abroad to hate the U.S., not an easy feat. Even Canadians now despise
the U.S. His appointment of Tulsi Gabbard as DNI has undoubtedly made friendly intelligence services in other countries
think twice or three times before sharing sensitive information. He has caused most of Europe and even Japan to start
rearming to defend themselves since they don't believe the U.S. will come to their aid if attacked. He has cozied up to
Russia and is happy to toss Ukraine to the wolves. The only thing that might save it is Trump's desire to steal its rare
earth elements, which Musk needs for his electric car motors.
Trump has revived the Monroe Doctrine and thinks Canada, the Panama Canal, and Greenland belong to the U.S., despite the
respective countries involved not thinking that at all. He has toyed with invading Greenland, which is part of a NATO
country, Denmark. The 80-year-old Pax Americana is in tatters. NATO may survive on paper, but nobody expects Trump to
lift a finger if Vladimir Putin invades Poland. His view of the world is basically that America owns the Western
Hemisphere, Russia owns Europe, and China owns Asia. No good will come of that since the countries that he thinks
someone else owns may actually resist being owned. Fortress America is back, only in the age of jet fighters and
intercontinental missiles, that doesn't work so well as it did in the 18th century.
Disinformation: Trump is lying like never before. It matters not a whit to him if what he
says bears any resemblance to the truth at all. His base doesn't care at all if what he says is true. He has said he has
made 200 trade deals so far. That is two-thirds true—the second and third digits are absolutely correct. He is
flooding the zone with so many lies that no one can keep up and refute them all. He also allowed the Voice of America,
Radio Free Europe, and Radio Free Asia to die off, lest they spread the truth, although a judge has paused their demise
for the moment.
His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, lies on a daily basis, more than anyone since, well, his previous press
secretaries Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kayleigh McEnany. Maybe Leavitt thinks if she lies enough, she can get to be
governor of her state (New Hampshire). It worked for Sanders, after all.
If you want a really long article on Trump's lies, with over 600 footnotes, here is one from
Wikipedia.
Most of it is about Trump v1.0, simply because he is only 3 months into this term.
Approval Rating: People are starting to have enough of Trump already. Here is a graph of
his approval rating since inauguration. And keep in mind, for nearly all presidents, the first 100 days is the honeymoon
period. It gets much rougher after that:
As you can see, he has lost almost 21 points approval since inauguration. No president ever has pulled that
off. But it is getting worse. Pollsters are starting to ask questions that have never been asked
before.
The Public Religion Research Institute asked 5,000 U.S. adults in March if they thought Trump is a
"dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy."
The good news is that Republicans and white folks don't think so, but the bad news is that
everyone else does.
A majority of Americans think the president is a dangerous dictator. Think about that for a moment.
A whole other area to look at is how Trump did on his campaign promises. Here is a list of
campaign promises
that Trump has kept:
Enact tariffs, including at least 60% on goods from China
Ban transgender athletes from women's and girls' sports
Stop cracking down on crypto
Pardon all the Jan. 6 rioters
Instruct federal agencies to cease promoting gender transition at any age
Rehire service members who were canned due to their refusal to take the COVID vaccine
Fire woke generals
Sign an XO ending birthright citizenship
"Seal" the border
Declare an emergency and use the military for mass deportations
Approve new oil drilling, pipelines, refineries, and power plants
Terminate the IRA programs that were in the Green New Deal
Upend the federal civil service
Repeal Joe Biden's XO requiring that AI protect Americans' rights
It is quite a list. Unlike many politicians, Trump was open about what he wanted to do and did
many of them. However, the courts have blocked him on some things, but at least he tried.
However, there are also some things he promised to do in the first 100 days and did not. Here is
that list:
Disclose who funded his presidential transition
End the war in Ukraine in 24 hours
Implement a mass deportation of immigrants on Day 1
Bring prices down, starting on Day 1
Finally, there is a list of promises that are pending. He might do them and then again, he
might not. Here is that list.
Create an External Revenue Service
Enact the largest tax cut in history
End inflation
Create an economic boom like no other
Close the Department of Education
Make in-vitro fertilization free
Reinstate a ban on transgender troops
Ban entry into the U.S. from terror-plagued countries
The bottom line is that he actually did pretty well at keeping quite a few of his promises. People who are surprised
at what he is doing weren't paying attention. He telegraphed quite a bit of his program.
Since we are making lists, how about a list of Trump's biggest mistakes of the first 100 days?
Here
is one such list:
Imposing crazy tariffs on "Liberation Day" and spooking the markets
Giving Elon Musk real power and the spotlight; Democrats will tie Musk around Trump's neck for years
Taking such a hard line on immigration and getting hit on it by multiple judges
Abusing his powers and going after his enemies instead of focusing on trying to lower prices
Blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion
Finally, let's let the people have the last word on Trump's first 100 days.
Marist College asked 1,439 American adults to grade Trump so far. Here are their
grades:
Trump failed. More people gave Trump an "F" than those who gave him an "A" or a "B" combined. In the crosstabs, 80%
of Democrats gave him an "F" while only 5% of Republicans did. However, 49% of independents gave him an "F" vs. only 16%
of independents who gave him an "A."
That's a lot of material and we are not even 7% into Trump's term yet. There are no doubt many surprises ahead.
(V)
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