Dem
47
GOP
53
This is not a feel-good item, but it is good news nonetheless. The folks who track crime statistics have been crunching the numbers, and report that homicides and nearly all other felony-level crimes are on a downward trend across the U.S. (the only exception is motor vehicle theft). Based on data taken from 42 major U.S. cities, the country is set to experience a record decline in homicides in 2025. That will break the mark set... in 2024, which broke the mark set... in 2023.
Why exactly was homicide up so much a few years ago? As you can see from the headline, it wasn't the butler. Or several butlers, even. The actual answer is not perfectly clear at this point, especially since the drop in homicides is extremely uneven, from Denver (the biggest drop, 40%) at one end of the spectrum to Little Rock, AR (a 39% increase), at the other. That said, the one factor that everyone agrees on is Colonel Mustard, in the Conservatory, with the Candlestick. No wait, that's not it. No, the one factor that everyone agrees on is that the pandemic was at least partly responsible for the uptick in violent crime, and so the recession of the pandemic is at least part of the reason for the decline.
This leads us to two observations. The first is that the pandemic was an earth-shaking event, not too far removed from a war, in terms of impact. And the full story will not be clear for many years, if not decades.
The second observation is that, anytime crime goes down, the politicians are very quick to take all the credit. This was, for example, Rudy Giuliani's entire calling card until 9/11 happened. And, truth be told, we're surprised Donald Trump hasn't already hopped on Truth Social to do some crowing. In any case, the story with crime is always complicated, and politicians always give themselves far more credit than they deserve. When and if Trump does take a victory lap, keep that in mind, with particular attention to the fact that the downward trend began well before his second term did.
Have a good weekend, all! (Z)