Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump is on a winning streak, of sorts. He got the deals he wanted with the U.K., Japan, the E.U., and several less important trading partners. But the big one has eluded him so far: China. Making a deal with China will be much more difficult than the others.
For starters, Chinese President Xi Jinping doesn't have to worry about elections next year (or any year) and can impose more pain on his people than Trump can get away with. He also has many valuable cards to play and he knows how to play them. America needs the rare earth elements China has and Xi can decide to sell or not sell them as he pleases. Not selling them has huge consequences for many American companies and industries and there is no short-term fix.
Additionally, China manufactures a huge number of parts used in jet engines, satellites, smartphones and a vast number of other products. Taxing the export of these things to compensate for damage done by tariffs would be easy.
Although China exports more to America ($450 billion) than it imports ($150 billion), those imports are heavily weighted toward agricultural products produced by Trump's base. Brazil and other countries also can grow soybeans. Long-term contracts to import millions of tons of soybeans from Brazil would very much upset Trump's base and Xi knows this.
Another big advantage that Xi has over European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is that he doesn't have to sell his strategy or results to 27 other leaders. What he says, goes. This gives him far more power than von der Leyen has.
Trump is thinking of visiting China to meet one-on-one with Xi and show off his deal-making skills. That will never work. First of all, Trump doesn't understand any of the details of trade and doesn't want to be briefed by experts who do. Xi is fully prepared to spend hours talking with his experts and having them produce summaries of what he needs to know. Also, his style is completely different from Trump's. He wants his experts to negotiate with America's team of experts and then when his experts have what they consider the best possible deal for China, to submit it to him for a yes or no decision. He would never agree on the spot to some crazy proposal Trump throws at him during a meeting. He would want Chinese experts to put it under a microscope first. If Trump thinks he can pull the wool over Xi's eyes, he is in for a surprise. The best Trump could hope for in a meeting is a vague agreement to conduct trade in a way beneficial to both countries, without going into any details. If Trump threatens and actually imposes a high tariff, Xi will block the export of materials and parts, forcing American companies that need them to shut down, possibly bringing on a recession.
Of course, it is still possible that the current low-level negotiations going on will produce a deal of some kind, and then Trump can go to China to sign it with a flourish and claim victory. But it won't be a one-sided deal like the one with the E.U. Well, unless it is one-sided against the U.S. (V)