Dem
47
GOP
53
In 2020, after the new census data came in, Republicans in the Texas legislature had a choice to make when gerrymandering their congressional districts. They could either protect all of their incumbents or be aggressive and try to win new seats. They were conservative (it's Texas, after all) and opted to protect their incumbents. It was a good decision and none of them have been ousted by Democrats.
Now Donald Trump comes along and tells them he wants the other plan: Be aggressive and try to win five more House seats. They said "Yes, sir!" and drew a new map, to some extent against their will and better judgment. Most of the mainstream media has settled on the narrative that Republicans just picked up five House seats.
Not so fast. Four of the five districts that the gerrymanderers modified are now majority Latino. That choice was made because in 2024, Trump's support among Latinos was 55%. What could go wrong? Well, if the Texas Republicans had been paying attention in class when they took Gerrymandering 101, they would have known that you are supposed to fill the districts you want to win with reliable voters. It is far from clear that Latinos are reliable Republicans. It is definitely true that many Latino men see Trump as very macho and they like him personally. That doesn't necessarily mean they like other Republicans.
Also, the situation now may be quite different from Nov. 2024. Many Latinos are souring on Trump on account of the deportations and tariffs. When Latinos in South Texas see ICE swooping in and arresting their family members, friends, and coworkers and locking them up without a trial, that doesn't generate a lot of love for either Trump or the Republican Party.
In addition, trade with Mexico is very important in South Texas. A lot of business and jobs depend on it and it has been badly disrupted. People are losing their jobs on account of the tariffs. Again, that doesn't generate a lot of love for the administration.
Polling shows that Latinos are souring on Trump nationwide. A CBS/YouGov poll has Trump's approval among Latinos nationwide at 32%. An Emerson College poll puts it at 38%. A Fox News poll has it at 42%. An Economist/YouGov poll says it is 31%. Finally, a University of Texas poll puts the number at 38%. Averaging these we get 36%. This is 19 points lower than the 2024 exit polls. And Trump's approval in Texas is probably worse than it is nationally because Texas has been hard hit by both deportations and the economic fallout from the tariffs. Oh, and Trump's lack of interest in helping Texans hit by the recent floods there probably didn't win friends and influence people.
The consequence of stuffing so many Latinos into four of the five new districts is that these are not only not guaranteed wins for the Republicans, but they could lose them all. Assuming Democrats are smart (not always the case), they will nominate local Latinos—say, state senators, state representatives, or mayors—and flog deportations and tariffs day and night. As a result, there is a good chance that the Republicans do not pick up five seats.
And it could even be worse. The new map moves Democrats into other districts. In a blue wave, previously safe incumbent Republicans could find themselves in highly competitive races. The moral of the story is that when gerrymandering a map, be really careful about basing your assumptions about how a precinct will go on only one election. Using long-term data about the nature of the electorate is a much better strategy.
Latino Republican politicians are aware of the problem. They are hearing from Latino constituents and it is not good. They are starting to do the unthinkable: advocate for (some) undocumented immigrants, namely people brought to the U.S. as children. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) now supports a path to citizenship, not deportation, for these dreamers. This is heresy and exactly the opposite of what Trump wants. She said: "The eyes of history are upon us. Some of the most shameful moments in our past as a country relate to how we have treated immigrants who are not criminals. And we are in one of those moments." On the other hand, she talks big but did vote for the bill that gave ICE another $75 billion to round up immigrants.
We may have to wait a bit for the gerrymander/dummymander to actually happen. To pass the bill, a quorum is needed. If all the Republicans and none of the Democrats in the state House show up, there is no quorum and the bill can't be voted on. If the Democrats in the Texas House just stay home, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) said he will send the state police to arrest them and bring them to the House and lock them in.
So what are the Democrats doing? They have decamped to Illinois, as guests of Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). The Texas state police have no authority to arrest anyone there and Pritzker is going to feed any requests for extradition into the nearest paper shredder (or e-mail shredder, if need be). As long as they stay there, the bill can't pass, but they probably can't realistically stay there until Nov. 2026. Sooner or later they will have to come back, but this stunt does make the redistricting national news, for what that is worth. It may also encourage California, New Jersey and New York to take countermeasures. (V)