
Donald Trump desperately wants the Fed to lower interest rates because: (1) He is still in the real estate industry and that industry lives or dies on interest rates, and (2) He knows he ran up the federal debt big time and wants to reduce the interest paid on it. He may or may not know that low interest rates stimulate inflation, which voters really, really, do not like. Be that as it may, he still wants the Fed to cut interest rates.
Trump has toyed with firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, his own nominee, even though the legality of that is questionable. According to the law, presidents can fire Fed members only for cause, and disagreeing about interest rates is not a cause. At the moment, Trump seems less likely to do that than he was a month ago. Nevertheless, last week he got a lucky break. One of the fed governors, Adrianna Kugler, a Joe Biden appointee, resigned a little bit early. Her term was due to expire Jan. 31, 2026, but she is out now, giving Trump an early appointment. She was the first Latina on the Board. She didn't explain why she left early, but she is returning to Georgetown University, from whence she came, as a professor. She might have simply wanted to start in the fall semester. Here is the current composition of the Board:
| Name | Appointed by | Term ends | Function |
| Jerome Powell | Donald Trump | Jan. 31, 2028 | Chairman |
| Philip Jefferson | Joe Biden | Jan. 31, 2036 | Vice chairman |
| Michelle Bowman | Donald Trump | Jan. 31, 2034 | Vice chair for supervision |
| Michael Barr | Joe Biden | Jan. 31, 2032 | Member |
| Lisa Cook | Joe Biden | Jan. 31, 2038 | Member |
| Christopher Waller | Donald Trump | Jan. 31, 2030 | Member |
| (Vacant) | Donald Trump | Jan. 31, 2026 | Member |
When Trump fills Kugler's slot, Republican appointees will have a majority, something they didn't have until Kugler, a Joe Biden appointee, left. Could this presage a move to lower interest rates? Maybe yes and maybe no. If Powell is against it, the votes won't be there. If Powell is for it, the votes will be there. But one of the Fed's missions is keeping inflation in check. Since terms are long (14 years), Board members tend not to be easily pressured by presidents. That said, this president is extraordinarily good at bending almost everyone to his will. When a majority of the governors are "his" people, the task is much easier. (V)