Dem
47
GOP
53
Rick Hasen, a professor of law at UCLA who specializes in election law, has written a disturbing op-ed over at Slate. After the usual disclaimer about tea leaves and how to read them, he is worried that in the next term, the Supreme Court now sees its chance to kill off what's left of the Voting Rights Act. It's not much, but it is all there is left.
The case that got Hasen worried is Louisiana v. Callais, a voting case. The Court has previously ruled that racial discrimination is forbidden by the Constitution, but partisan discrimination is a political matter not protected by the Constitution, so it is up to the state legislature to draw whatever districts it wants as long as the intention is not racial discrimination.
However, in Louisiana (and other states in the South), nearly all Black voters are Democrats and most white voters are Republicans, so drawing a map that discriminates against Democrats (a.k.a. Black people) is legal whereas drawing a map that discriminates against Black people (a.k.a. Democrats) is unconstitutional.
Oral arguments on Callais were heard in March, but instead of deciding the case in June, which would be normal, the Court ordered new arguments in the fall. In its order, the Court ruled that Sec. 2 of the Voting Rights Act could be unconstitutional because in this case a racial gerrymander (illegal) is simultaneously a partisan gerrymander (legal). The Court wants discussion of this issue in the new briefs.
By not simply ruling on the case before it and asking for more arguments, the Court appears to be moving toward eliminating Sec. 2 of the VRA, the last bit still standing. If states then eliminate minority-majority districts and claim they were partisan gerrymanders intended to help Republicans rather than white people (even though those two sets have a huge overlap), all would be well and good. It is not certain the Court will do this, but it had the opportunity to save Sec. 2 in June and chose not to do so.
We already know how one vote will go. In his vigorous dissent to the June decision, Justice Clarence Thomas said it was time to kill off Sec. 2 of the VRA. Alternatively, Congress could rewrite the entire Act if it wants to (knowing full well that the current Congress has no intention whatsoever of doing that). So if Hasen is right, the entire VRA will be gutted by June 2026. It was nice knowing you. R.I.P. (V)