Aug.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Retirement Season Is on Hold

The congressional August recess in the odd years is when members go home and talk to constituents, friends and family about whether they are up for another election circus. For older members, just being home makes then realize how much they love home and hate D.C. For others, being yelled at by constituents makes them wonder why they are in this crummy job. For still others, they realize that come September, they have to start begging for money again. For the previous 10 cycles, the average number of retirements has been 39, which is about 9% of the House. Here are the House retirement numbers for 2006 to 2026 (the 2026 numbers are preliminary, of course):

But this year there is a whole new consideration that has never happened before. Members are wondering: What will my district look like? In census years, the House districts are not changed. The first elections with the new districts are in the years like 20[X]2 (e.g., 2022). By the summer of 2021, the new district boundaries had been drawn and members knew what their districts looked like for the 2022 elections. There was no uncertainty about that in the summer preceding the election year. On account of all the furor about redistricting now, many members now have to consider what their new PVI will be.

This obviously strongly affects the members that are being targeted for defeat, but it affects many other members as well. When the legislature is busy stuffing voters of their own party into certain districts to defeat incumbents, those voters have to come from somewhere. For example, suppose there is a D+3 district with a Democratic representative that a Republican-controlled legislature wants to get rid of. The mapmakers can pull Republican precincts from neighboring (or sometimes not neighboring) districts and add them to the targeted district, while also moving Democrats out of the targeted district. But this has two kinds of consequences. The Republicans being added to the targeted district have to come from somewhere. This means that a safe neighboring R+10 district might have to become R+4 to supply Republicans to the target district. The member in the safe district may suddenly be in a competitive district and decide that fighting a competitive election isn't worth it and just retire. Similarly, the excess Democrats removed from the target district have to go somewhere. If there happens to be a convenient D+20 district nearby, they can go there without changing much, but that is not always the case. If some nearby incumbent suddenly discovers he or she has a bunch of new Democrats to woo, that could be the moment to throw in the towel.

The consequence of all the threats and feinting is that many members are holding their breath and waiting to see what happens. The result could be a spate of retirements in the fall instead of the summer.

But that has real consequences. Filing deadlines for primaries start to crop up in December. If a U.S. House member calls it quits in October, there is less time for state senators to plan a House campaign. And this cascades. If a state senator announces a run for the U.S. House in November, that leaves even less time for state House representatives to file for the vacant state Senate seat. Decisions may be made hastily and candidates who really aren't viable may jump in, possibly leading to messy primaries next spring. In short, we now have a level of uncertainty in the House that we have never had before at this point in the cycle. (V)