Dem
47
GOP
53
As we note above, many House members are nervous about the ongoing discussion about redistricting. Some are more nervous than others, namely Democrats in swing districts in red states and Republicans in swing districts in blue states. The former are powerless but the latter have some power. They can talk to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and point out that if these plans go forward, they and some of their colleagues will probably lose their seats, so the net result of all the redistricting may end up being zero while at the same time making independents, who don't like the idea of midterm redistricting at all, angry with Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Axios has made a graphic showing which House incumbents in California, Texas, Ohio, and Missouri are on the front lines of the redistricting wars:
These aren't the only members in danger. If the Democrats really go to town, they could unseat Republicans in New Jersey as well, and maybe in Illinois, but that is tougher. New York is easy, but takes longer, since the process of changing the map requires two consecutive sessions of the state legislature to approve. This means New York can't change the map for 2026 but can change it for 2028.
The Florida map is already heavily gerrymandered, with 20 of the 28 House seats (71%) being occupied by Republicans, despite Donald Trump winning only 56% of the vote in Florida in 2024. Nevertheless, it is conceivable that Republicans could go for the gold and try to wipe out a few of the remaining Democrats. Here is a list of the eight Democrats in the Florida House delegation:
| District | PVI | Incumbent | Location |
| FL-23 | D+2 | Jared Moskowitz (D) | Southeast: Boca Raton, Coral Springs |
| FL-22 | D+4 | Lois Frankel (D) | Palm Beach County: Boynton Beach, Delray Beach |
| FL-09 | D+4 | Darren Soto (D) | Orlando suburbs: Kissimmee, St. Cloud |
| FL-14 | D+5 | Kathy Castor (D) | Tampa Bay: most of Tampa, parts of St. Petersburg |
| FL-25 | D+5 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) | Southern Broward County: Hollywood, Weston |
| FL-10 | D+13 | Maxwell Frost (D) | Most of Orlando |
| FL-24 | D+18 | Frederica Wilson (D) | Southeast: North Miami, Little Haiti, Miami Beach |
| FL-20 | D+22 | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) | Southeast: parts of Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach |
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) hasn't made a decision on this yet.
Some of the Republicans in the hot seat are taking action to save their souls necks. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA)
will introduce legislation in the House this week to ban mid-decade redistricting nationwide. Most likely all the
Democrats will support it, as well as those Republicans about to lose their seats. There is probably a majority in the
House for it. The problem is that Donald Trump really wants the redistricting. This puts the Republicans pictured above in a bind:
Support Kiley's bill and be primaried, or oppose the bill and have your district be redrawn so you can't possibly win
it. (V)