Aug.13

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Confirmed: E.J. Antoni Is the Baghdad Bob of Labor Statistics

Yesterday, we wrote a very critical assessment of E.J. Antoni, Donald Trump's pick to be the new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The whole world, including people who know the field of economics far better than we do, has now had a chance to weigh in. It would seem we were on to something.

To start, if you take a look at Antoni's ex-Twitter feed, it is chock-full of political propaganda masquerading as serious economic analysis. That is also true of Antoni's CV; he's published several papers, and they are all partisan nonsense. To take one example, he co-wrote a paper last year in which he claimed the U.S. has been in a recession since 2022. That paper was absolutely shredded by the real economists; see here for one example.

There was also much criticism of Antoni and his credentials, from both left-leaning and right-leaning folks. Here's a rundown of some of the scathing critiques from the right:

• Dave Hebert, American Institute for Economic Research: "I've been on several programs with [Antoni] at this point and have been impressed by two things: his inability to understand basic economics and the speed with which he's gone MAGA."
  
  
• Stan Veuger, American Enterprise Institute: "[Antoni's] work at Heritage has frequently included elementary errors or nonsensical choices that all bias his findings in the same partisan direction."
  
  
• Jessica Riedl, Manhattan Institute: "I've never met EJ Antoni because he is not seen in many DC policy circles. However, the articles and tweets I've seen him publish are probably the most error-filled of any think tank economist right now."

If you would like some bonus scorn, here is Paul Krugman's absolutely scorching takedown of Antoni's colleague Stephen Moore, the fellow who appeared in the Oval Office last week to claim that the jobs numbers are actually great right now, and who recommended Antoni to Trump.

And in case there was any doubt that Antoni is an unqualified stooge, he outed himself yesterday. It will be none too easy for him to twist the BLS numbers in the short-term, since they are produced by a staff of thousands of economists, and the commissioner doesn't even get the numbers until they are finalized. This being the case, and since the numbers are likely to be pretty poor next month, and the month thereafter, Antoni yesterday floated the only possible solution to his problem: not issuing the jobs data at all, for several months, until they can be "corrected."

Trump is only concerned with his own image, and even then, he only thinks short-term. So, he either doesn't understand or doesn't care about the harm that will be done if the figures produced by the government become untrustworthy. However, every single one of the members of the Senate knows. The Commissioner of Labor Statistics is a Senate-approved position, so Antoni has to get the backing of at least 50 senators. While we would not suggest holding your breath, it is at least possible that this is another case, like that of Matt Gaetz, where confirmation is a bridge too far, and Trump will be "encouraged" behind the scenes to withdraw the nomination. (Z)