Dem
47
GOP
53
There has been much rending of garments and gnashing of teeth over the mayoral candidacy of Zohran Mamdani, particularly from The New York Times. There has also been much raking of muck from Mamdani's past, particularly from The New York Times. It doesn't appear to be affecting his candidacy, as polls of the race have him crushing the field.
The latest poll, just released yesterday, is from Siena. It has Mamdani with 44% of the vote, followed by "independent" Andrew Cuomo at 25%, then Republican Curtis Sliwa at 12%, and "independent" Eric Adams at 7%. These numbers are not too different from the first poll taken after Cuomo got into the race, by Wick. That pollster had Mamdani at 39%, Cuomo at 21%, Sliwa at 18%, and Adams at 9%.
There's been one other major poll of the race since Cuomo got in, from Zenith and Public Progress. That one had Mamdani at 42%, Cuomo at 26%, Sliwa at 12%, and Adams at 7%, so almost identical numbers to the new Siena poll. Of greater interest, perhaps, is that Zenith and Public Progress polled various permutations of the race, if the various candidates drop out. The biggest threat to Mamdani would seem to be if everyone but Cuomo drops out, and the anti-Mamdani vote coalesces around the former governor. According to the pollster, however, Mamdani still comes out on top in that scenario, 52% to 40%.
It is 84 days to Election Day; if these polls have the right of it, that's not much time for Cuomo or anyone else to overcome a double-digit gap. If Mamdani does win, and in particular if he wins big, we can think of three possible conclusions that Democratic pooh-bahs might draw from the election:
It will be interesting to see which one or ones they choose. (Z)