Dem
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GOP
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is having nightmares about Donald Trump betraying Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. Trump could easily concoct a deal in which Russia gets permanent possession of the eastern part of the country and a promise from Trump to stop supplying weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian army in return for a ceasefire agreement that Putin will violate within a week. Remember, Putin's goal is to incorporate all of Ukraine into Russia, but he is a long-range thinker and will take part of it now as a down payment. Trump's goal is a handshake and a photo-op without regard to what the Ukrainians want. Accordingly, Zelenskyy is doing what he can to round up support. Yesterday he flew to Berlin to talk to European leaders both in person and on the phone to get them prepared for what might happen next. He no doubt will be asking for weapons, ammunition and security guarantees after any kind of ceasefire. What he fears is that Putin will make some deal with Trump and then immediately ignore it. Zelenskyy would dearly love to have British, French, German and other troops in Ukraine to raise the cost of breaking the ceasefire for Putin. The Europeans are not likely to be enthusiastic about becoming participants in the war but do want to help in other ways.
But in the end, everything depends on Trump and how much pressure he puts on Putin Friday. In his column entitled "A Half-Baked Alaska Summit" Bret Stephens lays out some things Trump has in his toolbox if he wishes to use them:
Will Trump do any of these things? We have our doubts, but one can dream. The location of the meeting has been announced: Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. You definitely cannot see Russia from there as it is almost 700 miles away.
One possible bit of good news for Zelenskyy is that Trump teased a possible second meeting, including Zelenskyy, if all goes well Friday. This shows you how Trump is thinking. The meeting with Putin is a show and if the public demands it, there could be a sequel. That is definitely not how Putin sees it.
The Europeans are the ones taking action here. Late yesterday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and other European leaders, along with Zelenskyy, had a video call with Trump. Afterwards, Merz said: "We had a truly exceptionally constructive and good conversation with the president." That could mean anything from "we talked, he was polite, but we didn't agree on anything," to "we actually have a joint plan now." With Trump, even if there was an agreement yesterday, he has probably forgotten it already. Trump also said that if Putin doesn't agree to stop the war "there will be very severe consequences." But as we all know, TACO.
What the Europeans are afraid of is that Putin will sell Trump a deal that Zelenskyy could never approve of and then blame Zelenskyy when he doesn't approve of it. We'll know tomorrow... maybe. (V)