Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats still haven't figured out what they stand for as a party, but various other groups are at least talking to voters to find out what they want. Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark has run hundreds of focus groups since 2020, this year focusing on Biden-to-Trump voters. She says most of them see all of Trump's flaws, so pointing them out is useless. The voters already know them. The problem is that they believe Donald Trump is fundamentally for them whereas the Democrats are for minorities, gay people, and trans people, and not for ordinary white working people. What they want above all else is for prices to go down. Trump can't do it, but Democrats don't even talk about it. No one can do it, of course, but an alternative would be to raise wages and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is probably the only Democrat harping on that—and he isn't actually a Democrat. Longwell's conclusion is that Democrats have to drop all the identity politics stuff and also drop attacking Trump and instead focus on making life better for working people.
The New York Times didn't run large-scale focus groups, but did interview 30 working-class Biden-to-Trump (B2T) voters individually to see why they switched sides. The bottom line was a message to the Democrats: "Just because we don't like Trump doesn't mean we like you." A recent Wall Street Journal poll shows that only a third of the electorate has a favorable view of the Democratic Party. It is hard to win elections outside of very blue areas when most voters don't think much of you.
Some B2T voters didn't like the idea of Kamala Harris being foisted on them without a primary. Of course, that is tacitly a criticism of Joe Biden for not dropping out in Jan. 2023, when there would have been time for a primary. A number of voters didn't understand or trust Harris whereas Trump was clear that he would focus on lowering prices and deporting illegal immigrants. Harris didn't promise the former because she knew she couldn't (although she could have made a $15/hr minimum wage her big issue) and was afraid to tackle the latter due to internal divisions in her party.
A lot of the B2T voters saw the Democrats as focused on DEI, LGBTQ, and trans issues, none of which spoke to their economic uncertainties at all. In fact, this focus made them feel the Democrats didn't care about them at all. No one who listened to Trump at a rally would get the impression all he cared about was DEI, LGBTQ and trans issues. The Democrats couldn't shake that perception.
Voters are also very inconsistent. Many of them said the Democrats are too old. They seem to have missed the fact that Trump was 78 on Election Day 2024 and Harris was 60. They also seem to have missed the departure from the leadership of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Maybe the Democrats need to nominate someone really young next time, say in his or her 40s, especially if they are up against J.D. Vance, who will be 44 on Election Day 2028.
Some other evidence suggests Trump voters are inconsistent in other ways that are hard to combat. For example, Brad Bartell's new wife is from Peru. She overstayed her visa but applied for legal status. They went to Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory, on their honeymoon. Their flight back from Puerto Rico to the mainland was a domestic flight and no passport was required. Still, his wife was arrested and sent to a detention center in Louisiana. He still supports Trump and his policies. What would it take to get him to change his mind on Trump? Having Trump arrest and execute his first-born? Probably nothing could change his mind.
Similarly, many Trump-supporting farmers have been hit hard by his tariffs but still support him. They believe other countries are taking advantage of the U.S. and that has to stop. Examples like this raise questions for the Democrats. Voters say one thing but don't always mean it. Still, cost of living does come up a great deal in many contexts. It is clearly on many minds. (V)