Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump nominated Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be U.N. ambassador. In anticipation, she gave up her leadership role and it was filled by someone else. Then Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) asked Trump not to do it because the House margin is so small, every vote counts. Stefanik was not happy being demoted to a backbencher, so she floated the idea of running for governor of New York against the not-terribly-popular Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Stefanik probably thought she actually had a chance.
Now we have some polling from Siena College. Most Democrats are behind Hochul and most Republicans are behind Stefanik. The problem for Stefanik is that there are more Democrats than Republicans in New York. Among registered voters, 45% will vote for Hochul and 31% will vote for Stefanik. The rest will vote for someone else or are undecided. Oh, and 41% of the voters don't know who Stefanik is. She had better define herself before Hochul does.
Stefanik has preannounced but not officially announced, so maybe she can move up from 31% if she has a great introduction. But once she is in, Hochul will tear her apart for her hypocrisy. She used to be a moderate, but then decided her career would be improved if she became a super-Trumper. There will be ads showing her express her opinions "before" and "after" her epiphany. She's changed her mind on almost everything. That's not going to look good. And being a super-Trumper now probably won't play well in New York, where there are still many normie Republicans in the state.
Hochul is not home-free by a long shot, but with a big lead over someone she can tie closely to Trump, she is probably feeling good right now. (V)