Dem
47
GOP
53
The really good news from up north is that Donald Trump didn't sell Alaska to Russia as a gesture of goodwill. The good news is that Alaska wasn't Yalta, with Putin and Trump carving up the world. The decent news is that Ukraine got a reprieve of a few days before Trump tries to make Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy give up one-fifth of his country for a peace treaty that will probably not last even a few months. This puts Trump on a collision course with the rest of NATO. The other countries expect that as soon as Russian President Vladimir Putin rebuilds his army, he will either go after more of Ukraine or possibly even one of the smaller NATO countries.
Zelenskyy will visit the White House today. He no doubt remembers how he was treated last time, but he doesn't have a lot of cards to play and Trump knows it. He will be accompanied by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, one of Trump's favorite European leaders, who will try to intercede if Trump and J.D. Vance ambush Zelenskyy again. Former Dutch Prime Minister and current NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also be there. He is extremely skilled at buttering up Trump. It is beyond absurd that lying to the president of the United States and flattering him beyond belief is now the most important skill a diplomat can have, but here we are. Trump falls for good-looking young blonde women, so Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be there and do her best to charm him. Several other top European leaders will also be present.
As of yesterday, Trump's position was to skip a ceasefire and go for a full peace treaty. This was a big change since Friday, when Trump was pushing for a ceasefire. Will he change his mind again by today? Probably not, because Trump has visions of the Nobel Peace Prize dancing in his head. Hillary Clinton egged Trump on by saying that if he worked out a peace treaty without Ukraine giving up any territory, she will personally nominate him for the Peace Prize. Trump said if the meeting today works out, then a meeting with Putin, Zelenskyy, and himself could be next.
Trump's decision to go for a Nobel-grade peace treaty instead of an immediate ceasefire is a big win for Russia. Peace treaty talks can take months or years, especially when one of the parties has no interest in peace. Russia has made territorial gains on the battlefield in recent weeks, and Ukraine is increasingly unable to stop it. If the gains continue while talks proceed, then in 6 months or a year, not only will thousands of additional Ukrainian soldiers have died in World-War-I-style trench warfare, but Russia will have captured more territory and certainly will insist on keeping it in any deal. Trump probably doesn't even understand this, and if he does, he doesn't care.
If discussions about a peace treaty are now the order of the day, what might it look like? As they say online, read the terms and conditions before checking the box. Trump probably thinks that if Ukraine cedes some land to Putin, there will be peace. Zelenskyy knows very well that peace will be short-lived. What he might be willing to accept is some sort of land deal together with security guarantees. That would have to consist of either allied troops stationed in Ukraine to halt the next Russian advance or a huge amount of weapons and ammo and no restrictions on its use, including attacking deep into Russia to make the Russian people feel the war. Will any countries be willing to put their troops there? Without some real guarantee that Putin won't be able to grab more land, a treaty will be meaningless. Zelenskyy knows this and so do all the European countries. All of them are well aware of the 1938 Munich appeasement agreement with Hitler and how well that worked out.
Late yesterday, special envoy Steve Witkoff said that Putin had agreed to accept security guarantees for Ukraine. What that actually means in practice remains to be seen. A promise by the U.S. or some other country to defend Ukraine if attacked is just a bunch of words unless it is followed by action of some kind. Don't count on it being a done deal until all the details are worked out and agreed to. We find it difficult to believe that Putin will give up his dream easily when he can just continue to fight.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has praised Trump for his "openness" to providing security guarantees to Ukraine. Carney wrote: "The leadership of President Trump and the United States is creating the opportunity to end Russia's illegal war in Ukraine. Robust and credible security guarantees are essential to any just and lasting peace. I welcome the openness of the United States to providing security guarantees as part of the Coalition of the Willing's efforts." Carney didn't say whether Canada was willing to provide boots on the ground in Ukraine to secure the peace, though.
The E.U.'s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, was skeptical of a peace deal. She said: "The harsh reality is that Russia has no intention of ending this war anytime soon. Tougher measures must be applied." She is almost certainly right. Putin will never give up his dream of rebuilding the Soviet Union unless forced to. Saturday, there was a not-so-secret meeting of all the foreign ministers of the 27 E.U. countries to discuss strategy. One thing that came out is that the E.U. wants guarantees of Ukraine's security in any treaty, including no limits on Ukraine's armed forces, no limits on its weaponry, no limits on its military cooperation with other countries, and no limits on any alliances it may wish to join.
Putin is never going to give up his dream of incorporating Ukraine into Russia proper unless he has no other choice. About 230,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion started, a multiple of that has been seriously injured, and many educated young men have fled the country. Putin couldn't care less. He is keeping the army at strength by giving enormous sign-up bonuses to new recruits. The amount depends on the region, but can run into tens of thousands of dollars. Soldiers' pay has been raised many times and is now $2,000 to $3,000/month, putting them in the top 10-15% of all Russian earners. Also, soldiers get large life insurance policies so if they are killed in Ukraine, their families get generous payouts. For men who are in debt, joining the army is an attractive proposition, except for the getting killed or maimed part. The recruiting campaign is aimed at poorly educated working-class men who have no realistic chance of ever earning a decent living. However, many of the men signing up are motivated entirely by the money and are often completely unqualified and also poorly trained. A motivated, elite fighting force it is not. It is just meat for the meat grinder. Putin probably knows this, but it means there is no (very unpopular) general draft. The Ukrainian population is one quarter of Russia's, but the soldiers know exactly what they are fighting for. Highly motivated soldiers are much more effective than losers who are in it only for the money. (V)