Aug.20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Candidate News: U.S. House

Time for a roundup of news from some of the races for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives:

• California: The DCCC has made its first official ad buy of the 2026 cycle, dropping five figures for ads in Chinese-, Korean- and Vietnamese-language newspapers in Southern California. The specific targets are CA-40 (which is R+1 and is represented by Young Kim, R, who is Korean-American), CA-45 (which is D+1, and is represented by Derek Tran, D, who is Vietnamese-American) and CA-47 (which is D+3, and is represented by Dave Min, D, who is also Korean-American).
  
  Ambitious Democrats are lining up to take on Kim, who would likely be one of the first victims of a blue wave. There are already seven members of the blue team who have announced runs, and more are expected.
  
  
• CA-41: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) has been in Congress for three decades, and so knows a few tricks. However, his district got swingier in the last round of map-drawing (it's R+2), and it's one of the targets of Gov. Gavin Newsom's (D-CA) gerrymandering effort. The Congressman is not ready to retire, even though many people do at his age (72), but he might very well jump over to CA-40, and try to poach Young Kim's seat.
  
  Whatever Republican runs in this district, they are going to face an army of Democratic challengers. This one already has eight blue teamers, and there are a couple more who may get in. The Democratic establishment's preferred candidate is Katherine Aleman, who is moderate, young (33), and has something of a salt-of-the-earth persona. While she is a public school teacher, she is also an accomplished equestrian, and she runs a small agricultural operation called Fluffy Butt Ranch.
  
  
• DC-DEL: Since Washington, DC, was allocated a non-voting delegate to the House back in 1971, there have only been two people who filled the post. The second of those is Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D), who was first elected in 1991. She's 88 now, and there are many reports, including from her own staff, that she's approaching late-stage Dianne Feinstein territory. It is probably instructive that Norton has twice announced she's running for reelection, only to have her office walk it back, and tell reporters no decision has been made.
  
  Since Norton is not a voting member of the House, her functionality (or lack thereof) does not affect the balance of power. However, the job was created because D.C. deserves an advocate in the legislature. And that's never been truer than right now. Eventually, Holmes may be persuaded to step aside. But even if she stays the course, she's going to face at least one challenger, as DNC staffer Kinney Zalesne has filed paperwork.
  
  
• IL-02: Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL) is giving up this seat so that she can run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). The district is D+18, a.k.a. "Job for life, if you're a Democrat," so members of the Democratic Party are lining up around the block to potentially take a crack at it.
  
  Among the folks taking a look is someone who is a blast from the past and who, in fact, held the seat immediately before Kelly did. That would be Jesse Jackson Jr., who represented IL-02 from 1995-2012, and who is still just 60 years old, despite having served nearly 17 years and then having been out of office for 13 years.
  
  The small fly in the ointment is that Jackson left office—resigned, in fact—because he and his wife were implicated in a bribery scandal, one that eventually led to prison time for both of them. If he jumps in, he'd be hoping that all is forgiven—or, preferably, forgotten. Anyhow, if you believe name recognition is what it takes to triumph over a crowded primary field, Jackson's got it, far more so than the gaggle of state legislators and municipal officials who have announced/hinted at a run. If you believe affinity politics is the key, IL-02 is 49.5% Black.
  
  
• MO-02: This district is R+4, but it's represented by Ann Wagner (R), who is pretty popular. The Democrats are looking under rocks for a viable challenger, and some muckety-mucks thought they had a pretty swell idea: recruit former Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright. It's not just Republicans who can capitalize on the popularity of athletes.
  
  There are a couple of weaknesses in the plan, though: (1) It's not clear that Wainwright is a Democrat, and (2) He's not interested in running. Oh, well, you can't fault the political operatives for thinking outside the box!
  
  
• NY-17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) flirted with a gubernatorial run, but decided against it (probably at the insistence of Donald Trump who was worried about losing the House seat). Instead he is going to run for reelection in his D+1 district in the Hudson Valley. Naturally, having an incumbent is much better for the GOP than having an open seat. But Lawler is no shoo-in for reelection. He voted "yes" on the BBB and Democrats are going to tie that around his neck like a millstone. The bill was very unpopular in New York and he is going to have to defend it for the next 16 months. It won't be easy in a swing district. Many Democrats understand this, so seven of them have already filed to get the Democratic nomination.
  
  
• TN-07: Mark Green's resignation from the House is now official, and he has departed for... some sort of financial scheme in Guyana. And now, Republicans are coming out of the woodwork to try to lay claim to the remainder of his term. It would appear that the leading candidate is Matt Van Epps, a West Point graduate who is currently serving as Tennessee Department of General Services Commissioner. In announcing his candidacy, Van Epps said: "From one West Point grad to another, I commend Congressman Green for his conservative legacy and his commitment to advancing President Trump's America First agenda on behalf of Tennessee." Does that give you a pretty good feel for how red TN-07 is? For the record, it's R+10.
  
  
• TX-11: Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) is obnoxious. First, because he is one of those members (and they exist on both sides) who is clearly more interested in getting TV time than in doing his job. Second, because anytime there is a "debate" in Congress, he expends all kinds of hot air bellowing that [BILL X] is not conservative enough, and won't get his vote, and then... he folds like a cheap suit.
  
  Apparently, Roy is interested in greener pastures, and so may run for the attorney generalship of Texas, a job being vacated by Ken Paxton (R) so he can run for the U.S. Senate. Perhaps Roy is tired of Washington, and of having no actual influence or power there. Maybe he's looked at Paxton's tenure, and decided that the AG post offers far more opportunities for political theater than being a backbencher in the House. Maybe he's just tired of the constant fundraising.
  
  There is a cautionary tale here, one not far in the past. In 2022, the equally obnoxious Louie Gohmert (R) gave up his seat in the House to take a shot at becoming Texas' AG, and he got crushed. It's true that he was up against Paxton, who was an incumbent. But it's also true that Gohmert finished a distant fourth place in the primary, meaning he presumably would have been out of luck even if Paxton wasn't in the race.

That's the latest. Soon, we need to do another round of updates on gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates. (Z)