Dem
47
GOP
53
Up through yesterday, the plans to play around with the Texas and California district maps were just vaporware. But now they are as real as they can be in California, and are on the threshold of reality in Texas.
Starting in Texas—because they started it—the new, gerrymandered maps have been approved by the state House, and also by the relevant committee in the state Senate. The whole Senate was expected to sign off on the plan yesterday afternoon, but they apparently dragged their feet a bit. Presumably, they will make it official today.
Although the Texas maps aren't quite a done deal yet, one domino, and maybe two, have already fallen. Under the new maps, Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett (both D-TX) would be shoved into the same district (the redrawn TX-37). Casar is young (36), Latino and progressive, while Doggett is more than twice as old (78), white, and more moderate. It would likely have been a brutal primary if they went head-to-head. However, Doggett said yesterday that if the new maps stand up to legal challenges, he will stand down. Maybe he's taking one for the team, but he's been in politics for 52 years and in Congress for 30 years, and so maybe he's just had his fill.
The other domino (maybe) is that Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) made official that he will run to replace Texas AG Ken Paxton (R). Roy's district, under the new maps, is going to pick up a handful of very Trumpy neighborhoods. That increases, at least by a little bit, the chances of a successful primary challenge from the right (particularly if Donald Trump endorses the challenger). So, it's possible the gerrymandering was one of the factors that pushed Roy into the AG race.
Meanwhile, California lawmakers officially approved Gov. Gavin Newsom's (D-CA) plan to temporarily gerrymander the California maps, until returning the job to the state's redistricting commission in 2032. Once the legislature had given its approval, the bill was rushed over to the governor's mansion, where he promptly signed it, remarking: "They fired the first shot, Texas. We wouldn't be here had Texas not done what they just did."
So, assuming that the Republicans, both in California and elsewhere, are not successful in challenging the move in court (and they have no strong basis for doing so), then folks in the Golden State will head to the polls on November 4 to vote on the measure. And the electioneering is already well underway. Readers M.M. in San Diego, CA, and R.S. in Cupertino, CA, both sent us a copy of the flyer (pamphlet?) that's already hitting voters' mailboxes. Here's the cover:
The document is carefully crafted to look like it's the work of left-leaning/good-governance activists. However, it's actually the work of Charles T. Munger Jr., who is a far-right Trumper. Munger's interest in redistricting efforts (which is longstanding) has nothing to do with good governance and everything to do with securing (and now, keeping) as many Republican-held seats in California as possible.
Newsom and his supporters, of course, are prepared to fight back. As regards Munger, he's donated money to anti-choice and anti-LGBTQ causes. So, that bit of information might get mentioned once or twice in the next few months. Meanwhile, Newsom is fundraising hard for his own PR campaign. In just the first week, he's brought in $6.2 million. That amount is not quite equivalent to how much the billionaire Munger can spend, if he so chooses. However, Munger's money came from one person, whereas Newsom's came from over 200,000 people. That is an early indication of which side has more enthusiasm behind it.
In the past half-century, there were few circumstances (if any) where money translated to votes more predictably than with ballot propositions, particularly ballot propositions in California. There was a period of time where "Which side spent the most money?" predicted which side triumphed in California over 90% of the time. However, that era may have come to an end. You know who actually reads the political literature they get in the mail? Politics wonks, who already know how they are voting. It was TV commercials that were the real driver of voting patterns, but those don't work so well anymore, since so many people don't watch linear TV. Maybe a targeted online campaign will work, but they're hard to execute. Oh, and Newsom and his operation are pretty darn savvy about online ads themselves.
Certainly, Munger and his ilk will explore all avenues. And, in the end, they'll probably be able to outspend Newsom. But will the anti-gerrymander forces in California be able to move the needle enough, since Newsom's side of the issue appears to be up by 20 points right now? We're skeptical.
All of this said, the various gerrymandering skirmishes are just the opening salvo. The Republicans desperately want to maintain power, and many of them, including the leader of the Party, have absolutely no scruples about how they do it. Donald Trump was on one of the endless galaxy of right-wing shows yesterday, and did some more prattling about the evils of mail-in ballots. In particular, the President made the utterly absurd claim that when he eliminates mail-in balloting, the Republicans will be able to flip a hundred seats in the House.
Trump is not going to be able to eliminate mail-in balloting, and even if he could, it would not flip 100 seats (or even 10 seats, or 5 seats, or 2 seats, for that matter). However, he is laying the groundwork to delegitimize wins for the Democrats, particularly if they retake either chamber of Congress. A blizzard of post-election lawsuits, filed by pliant lackeys in the Pam Bondi-led Department of Justice, is likely. They won't work, but they could gum things up for a while, and maybe deprive the Democrats of some political capital.
Meanwhile, some on the right, with Steve Bannon
taking the lead,
are urging a truly evil plan. The idea is to deploy Blackshirts ICE agents to polling places in immigrant-heavy
states. This is also a plan that should die a quick death at the end of a judge's gavel (or many judges' gavels).
However, Bannon is clever enough to know that just the possibility could keep some leery voters away, just in case. What
a vile creature he is. (Z)