Dem
47
GOP
53
The DNC is meeting today in Minneapolis, where it is nice and warm. They will talk about New Hampshire in January, where it is not nice and warm. Topic A will be the 2028 primary schedule and New Hampshire's law stating that the secretary of state has authority to pick the primary date to make sure New Hampshire holds the first primary, even if it is on Halloween 2027. That will be hard to get around.
Also on the agenda is the matter of the Iowa caucuses, but that is different. First, caucuses are run by the parties, not the state, so a party can just decide not to hold a caucus. Also, Iowa botched the 2020 caucuses and we are still not sure who won.
In the last cycle, South Carolina's Rep. Jim Clyburn (D) saved Joe Biden's hide and, to return the favor, Biden promised to have the Palmetto State go first next time. New Hampshire won't like that. What will the DNC do today?
The usual criticism of New Hampshire is that it is very white. On the other hand, the Democrats are bleeding white voters and maybe picking a nominee that white people like isn't such an awful thing. This is what the DNC will be talking about. Actually, it is a bit more complicated than that because the date of a state primary is set by—get this—the state, not the DNC. All the DNC can do is ask politely.
What insiders think is likely to come out of the mixer is four early states from four different regions, then super Tuesday. Most likely the four will be New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and some midwestern state, possibly Michigan. That would give voters who are white, Black, Latino, and union workers each a state. The problem with Michigan is that it is relatively large, meaning that television (and thus money) will play a big role. That is very different from New Hampshire, where no self-respecting Democrat will vote for a candidate until he or she has met the candidate personally three times. It's really true. (V) was once in New Hampshire in October the year before a presidential election, and candidates were thick on the ground. The DNC could punt today, but the sooner it makes up its mind, the sooner the candidates can hone their stump speeches and hit the road. After all, what's the point of eating fried Twinkies at the Iowa State Fair if what a candidate should really be doing is eating paczki at the Michigan State Fair? (V)