Dem
47
GOP
53
It is more likely than you think (unless you follow Alaska politics closely).
Here's the deal. The Democrats need to flip four seats to control the Senate. They already have their dream candidate in two races, and might well get their dream candidate in the third one. The three easiest seats to flip are North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio, in that order. They got Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Now they are waiting for Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) to make up her mind if she is in or out. Fortunately for the Democrats, gerrymandering the House doesn't affect the Senate, which is already a gerrymander of the entire country.
Where could that critical fourth seat come from, to prevent J.D. Vance from actually having to attend boring Senate sessions to cast tie-breaking votes? One tantalizing possibility is up north—Alaska. There, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is running for reelection next year. The obvious Democratic candidate is Mary Peltola, a native Yup'ik Alaskan, who was previously the at-large representative and thus the winner of a statewide election.
But Peltola has a tough choice to make: do what is good for herself, or do what is good for her party and the country. We know how that works with Donald Trump, but Peltola is made of sterner stuff. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK) cannot run for reelection next year, leaving an open-seat race for governor behind. Polling shows that Peltola is the odds-on favorite to be elected governor if she runs. She is polling at 40% and the top "possible" Republican is at 11%. State Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich (D) has filed to run for governor, but would probably drop out if Peltola got in.
However, the Democratic Party doesn't give a rat's a** who is governor of Alaska, but cares very much who its senators are. Running for the Senate would be tougher for Peltola, but not impossible. She is by far the most popular politician in the state at +9, while Donald Trump is at +1 and Sullivan is EVEN. Needless to say, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is on the phone constantly with her promising her the sun, the moon, and the stars if she will run for the Senate. We haven't seen any Senate polls yet.
There are multiple factors Peltola has to consider before making a choice, both personal and political. First, the personal. She has four biological children and three stepchildren to take care of since her third husband, Eugene Peltola Jr., died in the crash of a plane he was flying in 2023. United has a nonstop flight from Dulles to Anchorage in the early evening, but it is nearly an 8-hour flight. She could uproot all her young kids and move them to D.C., but senators still need to show up at home regularly. She is only 51, but it would be a stressful life. When she was a representative, she had a husband to help out; now she is single. As governor, she would just live in Juneau and not have to travel out of state much.
Politically, fully one-third of Alaskans are on Medicaid and Sullivan voted to cut it. That will be one very powerful issue to campaign on, especially if there is a blue wave. Another is Sullivan's vote to defund public radio, which is the only source of news and emergency information in much of the state. She would certainly hang that vote around his neck as well. And of course, she would do very well with the 15% of the population that is Native Alaskan and the 12% that is mixed. If she ran, Schumer and the DSCC would let donors know that she was a top priority.
Because Peltola is already well known statewide, she doesn't have to jump in immediately. Still, if she wants to clear the field, she probably shouldn't wait too long. It is entirely her call, but control of the Senate could depend on it.
Other Senate races that could provide the fourth state are Montana (if Jon Tester jumps in), Iowa (if Sen. Joni Ernst, R-IA, jumps out), and Texas (if AG Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary). But Alaska is probably the best bet, if Peltola is the Democratic candidate. (V)