Dem
47
GOP
53
As California Republicans endeavor to resist the temporary gerrymander of California's district maps being pushed by Gavin Newsom, they do have a couple of things going for them, namely a lot of money, and a fair bit of star power in the person of former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. That said, while the GOP PR campaign is off to a rousing start, in the sense that everybody who's even so much as looked at a polling place is now getting "literature," the tactical campaign is not going so well.
The basic dynamic is that there are two different people who think they are the most important and influential Republican in California: Schwarzenegger and former speaker Kevin McCarthy. And they each have a different idea on the best way to approach this campaign. McCarthy, in brief, wants to drive up Republican turnout. That means ginning up Republican voters by focusing on how evil Democrats are, and probably by getting Donald Trump directly involved in the campaign. Schwarzenegger, on the other hand, wants to appeal to independents and moderate Democrats, based on a "good governance" message. That means no villainizing Democrats, and also keeping Trump as far away from California as is possible. Both men are aligned with super PACs (Schwarzenegger is working with billionaire Charles Munger Jr.), and both hope to raise $100 million.
The big problem here is that Republicans are in the minority in California, and the "stop the gerrymander" position is in the minority. There have been two polls taken since the ballot measure became official, and the pro-Newsom position led by 22 points in one, and 16 points in another. Even worse for the GOP, polling-wise, is that in the second of those polls, from Politico-UC Berkeley Citrin Center, 70% of Democrats (which means nearly ALL of the pro-gerrymander respondents) say they are opposed to gerrymandering. In other words, they already accept the general "good governance" argument, but they also accept Newsom's argument that this is a special circumstance that requires a special response. And it is not going to help the Republicans to sell their argument if they actually have two different arguments, arguments that are somewhat in conflict (you cannot, for example, simultaneously villainize Democrats and yet also try to get them on your side).
It also does not help, by the way, to get caught basically lying to people by implying that the League of Women Voters is part of your team. This is what Munger and Schwarzenegger did; it makes them look dishonest, and also suggests their position is so weak they can't get a legitimate non-Republican activist to support it.
Meanwhile, not only are Democrats on the same page in terms of their argument, but Newsom's allies, particularly among organized labor, are already hard at work organizing and planning their ground game and field operation. This is the same basic group of people that Newsom deployed back in 2021, when he defeated a recall initiative by 24 points, 62% to 38%.
If Republicans want to win statewide elections in California, whether for political office, or for ballot initiatives, then they basically have to play their hand perfectly to even have a shot. At the moment, that is definitely not what is happening. (Z)