Aug.28

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Thirty-One States Have an Election of Attorney General This Cycle

State AsG are the states' top cops. They handle state-level criminal and civil cases. When the president is not from their party, they often spend a lot of energy suing the administration. AsG are the most important state officials after the governors. There are 31 elections for AG this cycle. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has a rundown of all the races, summarized below. Of the 43 elected AsG (the other 7 are appointed), Republicans hold 24 to the Democrats' 19.

• Alabama: Open. AG Steve Marshall is running for the Senate. Whoever wins the GOP primary is in.
• Arkansas: AG Tim Griffin (R) is the prohibitive favorite.
• Florida: AG James Uthmeier (R) succeeded Ashley Moody when she left for the Senate. He should win easily.
• Idaho: AG Raúl Labrador (R) is safe if he runs but he might run for governor instead.
• Nebraska: AG Mike Hilgers (R) will win another term easily.
• North Dakota: AG Drew Wrigley (R) has ruffled some feathers but should be reelected without a battle.
• Oklahoma: Open. AG Genter Drummond is running for governor. The winner of the GOP primary gets the job.
• South Carolina: Open. AG Alan Wilson is running for governor. As Oklahoma goes, so goes South Carolina.
• South Dakota: Open. AG Marty Jackley is running for the U.S. House. Some Republican will win, count on it.
• Texas: Open. AG Ken Paxton is running for the Senate. Democrats simply don't win in Texas anymore.

• Iowa: AG Brenna Bird (R) is running for reelection in an increasingly red state and is the favorite.
• Kansas: AG Kris Kobach (R) is a fire-breathing right winger and is facing the same guy he barely beat in 2022.
• Ohio: Open. AG Dave Yost is term-limited. State auditor Keith Faber (R) is the favorite absent a blue wave.

• Georgia: Open. AG Chris Carr (R) is running for governor. Biden carried the state and both senators are Democrats. Miracles can happen.

• Arizona: Kris Mayes (D) won by only 280 votes in 2022. State Sen. Warren Petersen (R) is her likely opponent.
• Michigan: Open. Dana Nessel (D) is term-limited. Big multiway primaries on both sides are expected.
• Minnesota: Keith Ellison (DFL) might run for governor if Tim Walz retires. If not, another tough race for Ellison.
• Nevada: Open. AG Aaron Ford (D) is running for governor. His job is up for grabs in this swing state.
• Wisconsin: Josh Kaul (D) might run in the open gubernatorial race. Either way, it will be close.

• Virginia: AG Jason Miyares (R) is up in 2025. If Abigail Spanberger wins in a landslide, her coattails could help knock off Miyares.

• None

• California: Rob Bonta (D) is a lock for another term.
• Colorado: Open. AG Phil Weiser wants to be governor. Big primary for Dems, but the winner is safe.
• Connecticut: If Gov. Ned Lamont (D-CT) retires, AG William Tong (D) will run for gov, otherwise be reelected AG.
• Delaware: Kathy Jennings (D) shouldn't have a lot of trouble getting a third term.
• Illinois: No Republican holds statewide office, so Kwame Raoul (D) will get another term.
• Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) is a shoo-in for a second term.
• Massachusetts: Andrea Campbell (D) loves to fight Trump. End of story.
• New Mexico: Raúl Torrez (D) should coast easily to another term.
• New York: Donald Trump is targeting Letitia James (D), which will help her, not that she needs it.
• Rhode Island: Open. Peter Neronha is term-limited. There are many candidates but Rhode Island is very blue.
• Vermont: If Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) retires, AG Charity Clark (D) will run for gov, otherwise get reelected easily.

One important note here is that all five of the toss-ups are Democrats. These are potential pickups for the Republicans. There isn't much low-hanging fruit for the blue team other than Miyares this year. Maybe Georgia next year, but that might depend on the Democrats nominating a Black person for governor to juice Black turnout. (V)