Dem
47
GOP
53
There are multiple ways to measure how close a House district is. Charlie Cook's PVI is one. It uses the two most recent presidential elections as the inputs. Using the most recent House election is another way to do it. Election prognosticator Nathan Gonzales has a third way. It combines all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles to get the "expected" Democratic vote and the "expected" Republican vote. Because this metric goes back 8 years, it is slow to change, just as the PVI score is. One advantage over the PVI though is that it is adjusted after every midterm election, not just after presidential elections, so it adapts somewhat faster than the PVI score.
Here is Gonzales' list of the 10 closest districts, prior to the redistricting going on this year, sorted on how close they are. Needless to say, all of them are toss-ups next year and will get a vast amount of attention from both parties.
As you can see, all of them are within one point, so clearly they can go either way in any election. The Democrats have a tiny edge in seven of them and the Republicans in three, but that doesn't mean very much.
History shows that the 10 districts are not independent of one another, despite CA-13 and NH-01 being 2,600 miles apart. If the winds are blowing one way nationally, that will be felt in most districts. It was not a freak accident that Donald Trump won all seven swing states in 2024 and it is likely that all or most of these 10 districts will go to the same party in 2026. All it would take is something like a 2-point advantage in the national popular vote for the House to have all 10 go to the same party. Since each party now has five of the seats, a national advantage of 2 points would gain five seats here and additional seats with a slightly larger spread. In the most recent generic House poll, the Democrats are ahead by 8 points. But remember, Nov. 3, 2026, is 14 months from now and in politics, a week is a long time. Also, the current round of gerrymandering could change many districts. (V)