Dem
47
GOP
53
Our core business around here is elections. At first thought, you might think: "Rats, no action until Nov. 3, 2026." Fortunately, that isn't so. There are numerous scattered elections before then. Many of them will be taken as bellwethers for the midterms, even in deeply red or blue districts. If the Democrats go from D+15 to D+30 in some deep-blue district or from R+30 to R+15 in some deep-red district, that is an encouraging sign for the Party. Conversely, if there is no change since 2024, that is a different sign. Also, the exit polls about how specific demographic groups are voting are often very interesting.
So what is on the menu? Last week we had a long item about tomorrow's special election for Mark Green's vacant House seat in a deep red district west of Nashville, TN. Both parties are pouring money into it. Early voting was high, with 84,356 votes cast early (vs. 322,656 total votes in 2024).
Then what? Actually, there are more elections tomorrow. In Atlanta, runoffs for the city council will say something about whom Democrats want. Mayor Andre Dickens is backing moderates Thomas Worthy and Wayne Martin in two seats. They are running against candidates Thad Flowers and Nate Jester, who are supported by the Democratic Socialists of America. Also in Atlanta tomorrow, there are two school board runoffs with Dickens-endorsed moderates against DSA-endorsed lefties. If the lefties sweep all the elections, that will certainly show where the momentum is and that could affect how Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) campaigns.
Elsewhere in Georgia tomorrow, there are three runoffs for mayor. In Roswell, GA, Mayor Kurt Wilson (R) is running against Mary Robichaux (D). In the first round, they were within a point of each other. In Sandy Springs, GA, in the once-conservative Atlanta suburbs, Mayor Rusty Paul (R) is running against Dontaye Carter (D), a self-described progressive who has stressed housing affordability and wants to stand up to ICE. Four years ago, it was the same runoff and Paul won 68 to 32. A big change would be noteworthy, even if Paul prevails again. Predominantly Black South Fulton, GA, also has a runoff for mayor, but the two Democrats are mostly talking about local issues.
Up north in Jersey City, former governor Jim McGreevey (D), who resigned in a sex scandal, is trying for a comeback. We vaguely recall some other thing about some former governor who resigned in a sex scandal somewhere else running for mayor, but we forget where. Maybe some small city, and not one of those big apples. As we recall, it didn't work, but who knows. McGreevey is running against a progressive Democrat who has been endorsed by the Working Families Party. It somehow seems like déjà vu all over again (sorry, Yogi). There are six runoffs for the Jersey City council, also with moderate Democrats vs. lefties. Lefty sweeps in Georgia and New Jersey would definitely change the picture for 2026. There is also a mayoral race in Hoboken, NJ, but both Democrats are arguing about local issues like the city budget, so this one does not have any clear-cut national implications.
A week later, Dec. 9, there are races for mayor in Miami and Albuquerque. In Miami, the current (Republican) mayor is not running. It is Eileen Higgins (D) vs. Emilio Gonzalez (R). ICE is a big issue in a city with many Latinos. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has endorsed here. We will let you guess which candidate he backs. A big win or a big loss for DeSantis' endorsee could have implications for DeSantis in 2028.
Albuquerque is only 225 miles from the Mexican border city of Ciudad Juárez. Mayor Tim Keller (D) is facing a runoff against a former sheriff, Darren White (R). Immigration and cooperation with ICE is a big issue. Earlier this year, Keller issued an XO limiting city cooperation with ICE (apparently even mayors can issue XOs; who knew?). White is pro-ICE. A blowout either way would say something about immigration enforcement.
A Houston city council election on Dec. 13 has a generational change aspect. Former council member Dwight Boykins (61) wants his old job back. However, a young progressive lesbian Latina, Alejandra Salinas (30), has other ideas about who should sit in that council seat. However, it is not a pure generational play, as Boykins used AI to build his website and plagiarized his platform from Salinas. Races where a clean, young progressive beats a sleazeball old guy don't really say so much. What we need as a control is one in which a smarmy, young progressive runs against an upstanding old-timer.
Finally, there are four contested state legislative elections in December of note (and nine more that are not being contested). On Dec. 9, Florida's HD-90 (Palm Beach County, where Donald Trump lives) has an election between incumbent Rob Long (D) and far-right Trumpist Maria Zack (R). Zack has spread false conspiracy theories that Italy helped steal the 2020 election for Biden. A whopping victory for the Democrat in Trump's backyard would be a black eye for him.
Also on Dec. 9 there is a race in Georgia's HD-121. It went for Trump by 22 points in 2024. But this is where the two Georgia candidates won big margins for the utility commission in November. If Democrat Eric Gisler flips the seat, that will show that the utility commission races were not flukes. The Republican is Dutch Guest. This is actually his name, not a description of a visitor from the Netherlands.
Another week later, on Dec. 16, Kentucky's SD-37, around Louisville, has an election. Kamala Harris carried it by 5 points. How will state Senate Whip David Yates do in this competitive district in a red state but bluish area?
Iowa Republicans lost their supermajority in August when Democrats flipped a red district in Woodbury County. Gubernatorial nominee appointments need a supermajority, which means Democrats can now block them. If Republicans win the open-seat race in SD-16, they will get back the supermajority. National Democrats are actively helping Renee Hardman (D) against Lucas Loftin (R). The election is Dec. 30 so turnout might not be heavy. Harris won the district by 17 points, so Democrats are optimistic.
Tomorrow, we will preview some of the elections that will take place early in 2026. (V)