Dec.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Election Results

As we discussed Monday, some bellwether elections were scheduled for yesterday. How did they go?

• TN-07 special election When Mark Green suddenly departed Congress for greener (well, probably not greener, but better-paying) pastures, he left behind a vacant House seat. A special election for it in TN-07 was held yesterday. Although the district is R+10, both parties poured vast amounts of money into it. The Democrat was Aftyn Behn and the Republican was Mark Van Epps.
  
  Van Epps won 54% to 45%, roughly consistent with the R+10 partisan lean of the district. However, the Republicans had to spend millions of dollars to get that result. Speaker Mike Johnson made a personal appearance Monday and made a live phone call to Donald Trump during the rally. This is a district Trump won by 22 points in 2024, so clearly Trump's personality does not transfer to other Republicans, an ominous sign for 2026. Neither does Green's; he won the district by 21 points in 2024. Here is a graphic comparing the five special congressional elections this year with the 2024 elections.
  
  
  As you can see, the TN-07 election was roughly consistent with the four previous special elections in 2025, with Democrats outperforming 2024 by a dozen points or more. This was the worst improvement of the lot, but there is probably a reason for that: Democrats still haven't gotten the memo that there isn't one House election. There are 435 of them, each one unique in its own way. Behn is a fiery activist. She even called herself a radical, something the Republicans repeated over and over. To make it worse, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez showed up and campaigned for her. We are not sure whether Behn or Van Epps invited her, but Middle Tennessee is not Seattle or San Francisco, so she probably helped Van Epps. Democrats need to understand that in a D+10 district, AOC is a great help, but not in an R+10 district. Bill Clinton might have helped more since it is hard to label him as a radical and he is kind of from the neighborhood.
  
  
• Georgia mayoral races There were three runoffs for mayor in Georgia yesterday, in Roswell, Sandy Springs, and South Fulton. In Roswell, Democrat Mary Robinchaux ousted the Republican incumbent mayor Kurt Wilson 53% to 47%. Roswell is a small town in Fulton County; a clear win over an incumbent is a sign.
  
  In Sandy Springs, Georgia's seventh most populous city, it went the other way. Long-time mayor Rusty Paul (R) got his fourth term over challenger Dontaye Carter (D) 69% to 31%. Sandy Springs is 54% white and 18% Black. Paul is white, Carter is Black, and Georgia is in the South.
  
  South Fulton is a new city, having incorporated itself in 2016. It is in metro Atlanta and is 90% Black. It elected its third mayor in 9 years, with Carmelitha Gumbs beating incumbent Khalid Kamau. Both are Black Democrats and the campaign issues were largely local.
  
  
• Atlanta city council There were also runoffs for city council seats in Atlanta, with moderates endorsed by Mayor Andre Dickens running against progressives endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. Both of the moderates, Thomas Worthy and Wayne Martin, won their seats. Democrats who thought that Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York City is a harbinger of Democratic Socialists winning everywhere may have to dial that back a notch. It wasn't close. Worthy won 59% to 42% and Martin won 58% to 42%.
  
  
• Jersey City mayor There was an interesting runoff for mayor in Jersey City yesterday, with former governor Jim McGreevey, who resigned in a sex scandal, trying to reinvent himself as a big city mayor. Sound familiar? Results are familiar, too, McGreevey was slaughtered by councilman James Solomon, by a 2 to 1 margin. There was a young vs. old component here, as in NYC, since Solomon is 41 and McGreevey is 68. The message here seems to be that clean young progressives can beat moderate old sleazeballs trying to get back in the game after resigning in disgrace. America is not totally broken. Jersey City is the second most populous city in New Jersey and is on track to pass Newark for the top position within a decade. The city council results were not available when we went to press.
  

The executive summary is that candidates who are a good match for their electorate win and those who are not, lose. Young progressives have a base in some places, but those places are few and far between. Moderates who are slightly left of center tend to do well in a lot of places. The appeal of DSA candidates is limited. Disgusting old sleazeballs have no real base of their own and get only the votes of people who can't stand the other guy even more. (V)