Dem
47
GOP
53
While Indiana is hesitating about regerrymandering its congressional map, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is champing at the bit. However, he is waiting for a signal from the Supreme Court that breaking up districts centered around cities with large Black populations is legal. Currently, the Florida House delegation is 8D, 20R. However, five of the eight Democratic-held districts lie in the range of PVI D+2 to D+5. With creative mapmaking, all of these could fall. Maybe even FL-10, which is the district of Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL), and is D+13. It covers almost all of Orlando. It could be divvied up among all the adjacent red districts. Then there would be only two remaining majority Democratic districts, FL-20, which is D+22 and represented by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL), and FL-24, which is D+18 and represented by Frederica Wilson (D-FL). FL-20 is in southeast Florida (Ft. Lauderdale area); FL-24 is North Miami, Little Haiti, and Miami Beach. Here is the current map:
The current map is already heavily gerrymandered, but done in a subtle way, without any obvious salamanders or cartoon characters. It does respect many county boundaries, but not all. It has plenty of new opportunities for serious seat stealing.
The chairman of the Florida Republican Party, Evan Power, said that he expects the new map to deliver three to five new Republican seats. Virginia is expected to draw a new map in January, which could flip two, maybe three seats from red to blue. Illinois could produce a map that nets the Democrats two seats. The idea of voters picking their politicians rather than the other way around is as dead as the dodo.
Could all this rigging be an issue in 2026? Maybe, but unlikely. Voters care about the price of eggs and electricity, not procedural issues. Besides, both sides are now doing it. But you never know. In general, voters don't like gerrymandering and it is exceedingly extreme now. If the Democrats get the trifecta at some point, fixing this could be popular.
What DeSantis is waiting for is a decision of the Supreme Court on whether the Voting Rights Act is itself an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. In preparation for a favorable decision (for Republicans), he has called the legislature back into session in January to enact a new map. To make this work, though, he would need a decision from the Court this year. The Court has not given a timeline about when to expect a decision. However, the justices read the newspapers and know that the Republicans want a speedy decision. (V)