Dec.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Miami Will Elect a New Mayor Tomorrow

The TN-07 special election last week was not really a bellwether because Republicans always win in Tennessee. Nevertheless, it was interesting because the Democrat, Aftyn Behn, was merely beaten but not whipped. Tomorrow we have a real bellwether election: the runoff for mayor of Miami. There, Eileen Higgins (D) will face Emilio González (R) The election is nominally nonpartisan, but that fools no one. No Democrat has been elected mayor of Miami since 1997—and in that case, the election of Xavier Suzarez then was marred by fraud. The last time a Democrat was elected mayor of Miami in an election where there was no fraud was in 1993, more than 30 years ago, when Democrat Stephen Clark claimed the prize. Donald Trump narrowly lost Miami in 2024 but won Miami-Dade County in 2024 55% to 44%. A big win by Higgins tomorrow in red Florida would send out shock waves that would reach the Pacific Ocean.

As a city of 500,000 people packed into a small area on the coast, Miami faces many problems. A big one is rapid growth, especially from immigrants from Central and South America, resulting in huge pressure on housing, transportation, and public services. Climate change, in the form of extreme heat and flooding, is not an abstract issue that is of no concern to anyone now alive. All these things will land on the new mayor's plate in January.

For the Nov. 4 general election, 13 candidates were on the ballot. Higgins finished first at 35%, with Gonzalez second at 19%. The other 45% of the votes were scattered among the remaining 11 candidates. How the supporters of the minor candidates vote tomorrow will determine who becomes mayor of Florida's second biggest city (after Jacksonville, which has double the population of Miami). Higgins served on the Miami-Dade County Commission for 8 years. Her main issue is building more affordable housing. She is also concerned about flooding caused by climate change. In addition, she sees federal immigration actions in Miami as "inhumane and cruel."

González is a former Air Force colonel and former Miami city manager. His big issue is fixing the city's permitting system. He says that "affordable housing" is a misnomer. He wants to use city parks as water-storage reservoirs. He has been endorsed by both Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).

There are five key issues that have dominated the runoff campaign:

• Immigration: This is the issue where the candidates diverge the most. González is happy for the Miami police to be deputized as ICE officers so they can round up immigrants. In a televised debate last week, he said: "I cannot in good conscience fight the federal government and defend a rapist or a murderer, like happens in other cities." Higgins said she is sorry the city didn't join with South Miami in suing the federal government about immigration raids. In the debate, she said: "First of all, they said they were gonna go after criminals, but guess what? They're going after everybody." given how many immigrants Miami has, this could be a deciding issue for voters there.
  
  
• Housing Affordability: Higgins has said that the only way to solve the affordability crisis is to build more houses. She is in favor of using city land for housing and supports the idea of creating an affordable-housing trust, which would use city money to build more housing. González has said that building more housing isn't the solution. Instead, he wants to reduce property taxes to make housing more affordable. This would help people who already have a house but wouldn't be of much use to people who don't have a house and want one.
  
  
• Outside Employment: The mayoralty of Miami is a part-time job. Elected officials are allowed to have an outside "real" job. The city is de facto run by the city manager. Higgins, a trained mechanical engineer, is focusing on the nuts and bolts of running the city government. She has said she would be a full-time mayor and live on the $97,000 salary (considerably less than the $470,000 the city manager makes). González is a partner in a California-based asset management company. The head of that company donated $500,000 to his campaign. González has said the CEO is an old friend of his and expects nothing in return for his donation. We smell a dead fish alligator here. He has also said he will continue working for the company even if he is elected mayor. After all, who wants to live on a crappy $97,000? In the HR world, they say: "If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys."
  
  
• City Leadership: Both candidates want to replace the current city manager. Higgins said: "We need somebody that is outrageously innovative, tech-facing, that can implement the new ideas that we need to move Miami into 2026." González said: "I'm looking for a city manager that's well-respected, that has gravitas, that is experienced, that when people point at him, they say, 'You know what, it's a new day.'"
  
  
• Governance: Higgins wants to move city elections to even years to align with House elections and save money. González thinks the voters should decide but is afraid if city elections are in even years, local elections will be overshadowed by state and national ones. Also, Miami doesn't have a city council. It has a board of commissioners, though—one per district, with limited responsibilities. Higgins thinks that the current five-member commission is too small for a city of 500,000 people and wants to increase the size to nine. González does not want to expand it, at least not now.

Trump's recent attacks on boats near Venezuela could play a role in the election. Many of Miami's residents originally came from some South American dictatorship or other and would love to see Trump invade Venezuela, capture and kill Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, and force regime change. On the other hand, America Firsters voted for Trump because he promised to stay out of foreign wars.

In short, there are many issues in play, some local and some national. Interpreting the results will be tricky, but still instructive. (V)